Australian Inflation Hits 4.6%; Wall Street Pauses as AI Concerns Resurface

Preview: AUD/USD, Nas100 and Gold Technical Analysis

Australia’s annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 4.6% in March, marking a significant acceleration from 3.7% in February. This represents the highest inflationary reading since late 2023, driven largely by transport (+8.9%), housing (+6.5%), and food costs. While the trimmed mean—the RBA’s preferred gauge of underlying inflation—held at 3.3%, the 1.1% monthly increase suggests a strong near-term price momentum.  

The headline acceleration has reinforced hawkish RBA policy expectations. Market pricing now reflects a 75% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the upcoming May meeting. Consequently, the ASX 200 retreated for seven straight sessions mid-week as domestic equities began pricing in a more restrictive monetary trajectory and sustained geopolitical risk.  

WTI crude remains a primary inflationary catalyst, holding above US$99 per barrel on Wednesday. Supply-side uncertainty persists due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which affects approximately 20% of global oil flows. This backdrop continues to weigh on global sentiment as higher energy costs filter through to broader inflationary concerns.  

The momentum that carried major US indices to recent record highs has shown signs of fatigue. On Tuesday, the S&P 500 declined 0.4%, while the Nasdaq 100 fell 1%. This cooling is attributed to a combination of rising energy costs and renewed scepticism regarding the immediate scalability of the AI sector.  Reports of softer growth metrics at OpenAI have raised questions around near-term scalability and monetisation. Investor focus now shifts to the upcoming “Magnificent Seven” earnings results to validate whether current valuations are supported by actual AI-driven revenue growth or if a broader sector rotation is required.

In the following section, we provide a technical outlook for the primary instruments affected by this week’s fundamental shifts:

AUD/USD — Uptrend Holds Above Key Support

AUD/USD is holding above the 0.7160 area, a level that has shifted from resistance into support. The broader trend remains intact, with the pair continuing to trade within a rising channel supported by upward-sloping moving averages.

Momentum has eased slightly after the recent push higher, but indicators remain in positive territory, suggesting this is more a pause than a reversal.

On the upside, a break above 0.7230 would open the way toward 0.7300, near the upper channel boundary. On the downside, 0.7095 (20-day SMA) is the first support, followed by 0.6985.

As long as price holds above trend support, dips are likely to remain contained.

Gold (XAU/USD) — Consolidating Below Key Resistance

Gold is trading below the $4,960 after failing to break through the descending trendline, with price now stabilising around $4,580–$4,600. The pullback reflects softer momentum rather than a shift in the broader trend, with the long-term trendline (200-day SMA) still holding.

Short-term indicators have cooled, with RSI moving back toward neutral levels. This suggests the market is consolidating after a strong run rather than turning decisively lower. Resistance remains at $5,000, while support is seen at $4,390, followed by $4,265 near longer-term trend support.

The wider uptrend remains intact, but near-term price action points to continued consolidation in the near term.

Nasdaq 100 — Rally Pauses Near Resistance

The Nasdaq 100 has rallied strongly toward 27,300, extending strong gains of around 18% from the April lows. While the trend remains positive, the pace of the move has pushed momentum indicators into overbought territory.

Recent price action shows early signs of fatigue near resistance, suggesting the market may pause before attempting another move higher. Key resistance sits around 26,583–26,900, with stronger levels near 26,289. The broader trend remains supportive, but with Mag-7 earnings ahead and geopolitical tensions still unresolved, caution may build after the recent strong run, favouring consolidation before the next directional move.

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