Week Ahead: Stock Rotation & JPY Under the Spotlight

It’s a quieter week on the data calendar, typically the case after the monthly US non-farm payrolls report. That softer than expected headline print has seen Fed rate hike bets pared back with a fully priced 25bps move pushed to December from October before the data release. Ultimately, it’s only one bit of data, but it does buy the new Fed Chair and the FOMC more time and take the pressure off, after the recent hawkish debut by Warsh. Markets are having to get used to less Fed speak and forward guidance, which was reiterated after his appearance in Portugal last week at the ECB’s annual forum in Sintra. As long as the labour market behaves itself, rate setters can focus on price stability and inflation. For your guide, the next CPI report comes out next week.

Our mantra of ‘trade the data, not the Fed’ has been in play, as the dollar’s recent break to the upside reversed on the jobs report. Indeed, we said the greenback looked mildly overbought last week and it suffered its biggest weekly loss in 12 weeks. Focus will be on Tokyo and any more signs of intervention in USD/JPY. After the sharp fall on Thursday, we note that the MoF typically acts in bursts of two to three days, more so in holiday-thinned trading conditions. The issue is that unilateral action is often ineffective, so any signs of at least rate checks by the US Treasury as happened in January would bode well for more downside. However, as we have also said previously, any kind of protracted move in the major could depend on hawkish Fed expectations and how long they persist or change direction.

Stocks have been mixed recently with the hugely outperforming semiconductors seeing strong selling as investor have rotated into more defensive sectors like Industrials and Healthcare. The latter broke to fresh highs recently as we head closer to a fresh earnings season. We get two consumer plays which will be of interest this week, with PepsiCo and Delta Air Lines reporting their latest results. Lower front-end bond yields and a less aggressive near-term Fed path are supportive for equities broadly, while the decline in rates is potentially particularly supportive for both Tech and Real Estate, where valuation and financing conditions remain highly sensitive to bond yields. That environment could also help gold and bitcoin too, as bulls look to build a base around $4,000 and $60,000 respectively.

In Brief: Major Data Releases of the Week

Monday, 6 July 2026

US ISM Services: Consensus expects a reading of 54.1, just below the 54.5 print in May. Focus will be on prices paid after they touched a near 4-year high recently. The softness in the main index shouldn’t be a concern as the data is still consistent with GDP growth just above 2%.

Wednesday, 8 July 2026

RBNZ Meeting: Money markets price in a 75% chance of the overnight cash rate being hiked by 25bps to 2.5%. The last meeting saw a 3-3 vote split and bank forecasts point to a rate hike in July or September. Crude oil prices have fallen sharply since the prior meeting, but quarterly CPI and labour market figures are released later in July and August.

FOMC Minutes: The new Fed Chair Warsh stamped his mark immediately on his first FOMC meeting. The focus was on price stability as he binned forward guidance. Questions around how hawkish some officials are and any divisions between policymakers will be in focus.

Thursday, 9 July 2026

ECB Minutes: This meeting saw a 25bps rate hike as expected, with quarterly inflation projections raised, while growth was revised only modestly lower. President Lagarde also signalled little worry about second round effects. Crude prices have fallen since that meeting meaning the minutes may be seen as stale.

Friday, 10 July 2026

Canada Jobs: Consensus sees the headline print at 10k, down from the stellar 88k growth in May. The recent BoC minutes revealed officials saw slack in the labour market, with the economy still operating in excess supply. Markets currently give a coin flip chance of a rate hike by year-end.

Disclaimer: The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our client. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and therefore it shouldn’t be relied upon as such. Any research provided does not have regard to specific financial situations, needs or investment objectives. Vantage accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. We advise any readers of this material to seek professional advice where necessary. Without the approval of Vantage, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.