Week Ahead: NFP, JPY, Oil & AI jitters

There’s plenty to watch as we hit June and the first week of the month, which as always means a fresh US labour market report. This is on Thursday, not Friday,  due to the US Independence Day holiday. A fourth consecutive 100k+ print is predicted, having averaged merely 8,500 per month between January 2025 and February 2026. As we wrote last week after the first FOMC meeting under new leadership, economic data releases will be hugely important going forward with little forward guidance and less Fedspeak. The new Warsh era should be marked as one in which markets ‘trade the data, not the Fed’, with traders currently pricing in a 30% chance of a rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on 29 July. The dollar broke to the upside last week but looks mildly overbought at present.

FX markets may be building some certainty that 162 in USD/JPY is the new line in the sand for FX intervention. The prior long-term top, where sizeable action took place was in July 2024, sits at 161.95.  Certainly, the pace and the drivers of the next round of appreciation will determine the urgency and size of interventions. The end of this week could offer an opportunity for Japanese authorities to act as liquidity around the 4 July US holiday will be thin. If US payrolls are strong on Thursday, the MoF could pull the trigger on new intervention, but timing remains tricky.  Much could depend on hawkish Fed expectations and how long they persist. Watch also for the ECB’s annual Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, which will include remarks from key central bankers such as Andrew Bailey, Christine Lagarde, and Kevin Warsh on Wednesday.

Crude oil markets should also be watched as the Middle East ceasefire threatens to fall apart. Peace appears to be fragile and uncertainty prevails over the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. For now, the decline in oil prices is reversing the stagflationary impulse to the global economy providing a lift to growth and lower inflation in coming months. Notably, the euro zone benefits from this relative to the US, just like the euro zone was relatively harder hit by the oil shock. The reversal has also been visible in stock markets where euro stocks have outperformed US stocks lately. The latter have been hit by AI jitters causing tech losses of roughly 5%, but this has often been a buying opportunity.

In Brief: Major Data Releases of the Week

Tuesday, 30 June 2026

RBA Minutes: After three straight rate hikes, the bank left the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% as expected. The language remained hawkish citing persistent inflation and oil supply disruptions. Policymakers said short-term inflation expectations sit above levels seen earlier in 2026.    

Wednesday, 1 July 2026

Eurozone CPI: Consensus sees the headline ticking down two-tenths to 3.0%, and core is forecast to remain steady at 3.0%. Lower transport fuel prices are expected to more than offset the increase in household utility bills. Favourable base effects are seen helping the core ease.

US ISM Manufacturing: June manufacturing activity is expected to print at 53.9 from 54.0, while prices paid are predicted to ease to 77.5 from 82.1. The report may be modestly softer but will still be supportive of growth in the industrial sector. 

Thursday, 2 July 2026

US Non-Farm Payrolls: The headline is expected to print at 115k jobs added in June, below the prior 172k and three-month average of 188k. The unemployment rate is predicted to remain at 4.3% and wage growth is seen unchanged at 0.3% m/m and 3.5% y/y. Was the stellar May headline print a one-off due the World Cup?

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