[DAILY TRADING] EURUSD Analysis 29 June 2026 – EUR/USD Holds Near 1.1390 as NFP Week Opens
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Updated Mon, 2026 June 29 03:24
![[DAILY TRADING] EURUSD Analysis 29 June 2026 – EUR/USD Holds Near 1.1390 as NFP Week Opens](https://www.vantagemarkets.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/EURUSD_hero_8Jun2026-1.webp)
The Vantage EURUSD CFD is near 1.13899 as of 11:00 UTC (19:00 GMT+8) on 29 June 2026, down roughly 2.1% over the past four weeks. The euro-to-dollar exchange rate spent much of June caught between a hawkish Federal Reserve and an ECB rate hike that did little to support the euro. This week’s US Nonfarm Payrolls report, due on Thursday, 2 July, is the next major catalyst for the EUR/USD live chart.
All prices refer to the Vantage EURUSD CFD. Charts from TradingView. Not financial advice.
Key points
- The EURUSD pair is compressing between MA50 (1.13773) and MA200 (1.13902) on the 15-minute chart as of 29 June 2026, with RSI at 55.18, in neutral territory per the TradingView setup used for this analysis.
- The ECB raised its deposit rate to 2.25% on 11 June 2026. EURUSD fell anyway: markets read it as tightening into a contracting eurozone economy.[1]
- The Fed held at 3.50% to 3.75% on 17 June 2026 but upgraded its 2026 rate projection to 3.8%, with nine policymakers projecting at least one hike this year, while the Fed Chair did not submit a rate projection.[2]
EUR/USD live chart: what the 15-minute setup shows
The EURUSD chart for 23 to 29 June 2026 shows the pair opening near 1.1460 before sliding to a weekly trough of 1.1324 on 24 June 2026. A sharp recovery on 26 June 2026, coinciding with softer US personal consumption data and a downward revision to Q1 GDP, carried price briefly above 1.1430. Since then, EURUSD has faded back to the current 1.1390 area.[3]
The MA50 & MA200 (50, close, 200, close) on the chart header reads 1.13773 and 1.13902. Price is sitting in the gap between them, with price testing the MA200 as an immediate reference level. The RSI (14) per the TradingView setup used for this analysis is at 55.18, with the RSI moving-average overlay at 49.36, above neutral but with limited momentum.
Why the EUR/USD rate fell despite an ECB hike
The EUR/USD price action in June comes down to one counter-intuitive outcome: the European Central Bank (ECB) raised rates for the first time since 2023 and the euro fell. The ECB lifted its deposit rate to 2.25% on 11 June 2026. EURUSD dropped below 1.1400 within days, touching a low near 1.1324 during the week of 23 June 2026.[1]
Markets viewed the hike as tightening monetary policy despite a weakening growth backdrop. Eurozone GDP contracted 0.2% in Q1 2026 and the ECB’s updated 2026 growth forecast stands at around 0.8%. ECB President Christine Lagarde then pared back expectations for further aggressive action, saying the bank does not need to respond more forcefully to Middle East-driven inflation and that prices are expected to return to target over the medium term.[4]
The Federal Reserve added to the dollar’s advantage on 17 June 2026. Holding its target range at 3.50% to 3.75%, the Fed lifted its 2026 median rate projection to 3.8% with nine policymakers projecting at least one hike, while the Fed Chair did not submit a rate projection. The rate gap between the Fed and ECB sits at 1.25 to 1.50 percentage points in the dollar’s favour. US PCE inflation registered 4.1% year-on-year in May, more than double the Fed’s 2% objective.[2][3]
EURUSD key levels to watch
All levels sourced from the Vantage EURUSD CFD as of 11:00 UTC (19:00 GMT+8), 29 June 2026.
| Level | Zone | Context |
| Resistance | 1.1400 / 1.1470 | MA200 at 1.13902; 1.1400 capped closes since 23 June |
| Support | 1.1350 / 1.1290 | 1.1324 was the week’s trough; 1.1290 is the next structural reference |
| MA50 (15-min) | 1.13773 | Price held just above on 29 June open |
| RSI (14) | 55.18 / 49.36 MA | RSI above overlay; modest bullish bias, not overbought |
Table 1: EURUSD reference levels, 29 June 2026. Sources: Vantage EURUSD CFD; TradingView. Indicative only.
EURUSD forecast drivers: what to watch this week
US labour data dominates the EUR/USD forecast calendar this week. Markets currently price roughly a 70% probability of a Fed rate hike in September, making each employment print a potential repricing event for the dollar leg of the pair.[6]
- JOLTS Job Openings, 1 July 2026: First May labour reading. A miss could ease dollar demand; a beat reinforces higher-for-longer.
- ADP Employment Change, 2 July 2026: Private-sector hiring precursor to NFP.
- Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), 2 July 2026: Primary event for EUR/USD this week. The most recent reading was 172,000 in May, against a consensus of 80,000; a significant beat would reinforce September hike pricing.[5]
- Germany June HICP, 30 June 2026: Eurozone inflation is forecast to ease to around 3.0% from 3.2% in May. A softer reading could weigh on remaining ECB hawkishness.[4]
Market participants often monitor Stop Loss placement around the 1.1350 and 1.1400 zones when holding EURUSD positions through high-impact data releases. The pair has moved over 100 pips in single sessions this week. One factor market participants often consider ahead of NFP week is overall exposure relative to the pair’s expected range.
Leverage amplifies both gains and losses in CFD trading. Position sizing relative to account equity is one factor market participants often consider ahead of scheduled high-impact events such as this week’s US employment releases. In a range-bound market reacting sharply to data, leverage is a double-edged tool.
RISK WARNING: CFDs are complex financial instruments and carry a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should ensure you fully understand the risks involved and carefully consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money before trading.
Disclaimer: The information is provided for educational purposes only and doesn’t take into account your personal objectives, financial circumstances, or needs. It does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to seek independent advice if necessary. The information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within. This material may contain historical or past performance figures and should not be relied on. Furthermore estimates, forward-looking statements, and forecasts cannot be guaranteed. The information on this site and the products and services offered are not intended for distribution to any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.
References
[1] “EUR/USD Falls to One-Year Low as ECB Hike Turns From Yield Support Into Growth Risk – EBC Financial Group” https://www.ebc.com/forex/eur-usd-one-year-low-ecb-hike-growth-risk Accessed 29 June 2026.
[2] “Dollar Index at 13-Month High: USDX Chart Ahead of PCE Data – Vantage Markets” https://www.vantagemarkets.com/market-analysis/usdx-us-dollar-index-june-25-2026/ Accessed 29 June 2026.
[3] “The Employment Situation – May 2026 – U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics” https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm Accessed 29 June 2026.
[4] “EUR/USD exchange rate – Trading Economics” https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/currency Accessed 29 June 2026.
[5] “EURUSD Forecast 11 June 2026: ECB Hikes Rates, US CPI at 4.2% – Vantage Markets” https://www.vantagemarkets.com/market-analysis/eurusd-analysis-ecb-hike-us-cpi-june-11-2026/ Accessed 29 June 2026.
[6] “CME FedWatch Tool – CME Group” https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html Accessed 29 June 2026.
