EURUSD is trading near 1.1555 as of 01:40 UTC on 11 June 2026 (09:40 GMT+8), a two-month low range the pair has held since a sharp drop in early June. Here is today’s EURUSD news, chart analysis, and key levels to watch. All prices refer to the Vantage EURUSD CFD.

Two things dominate the session. First, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed yesterday that May Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 4.2% year-on-year^[1], the highest reading since April 2023, driven largely by a 3.9% monthly jump in energy prices.^[1] Second, the European Central Bank (ECB) holds its June policy meeting today, and markets are fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate hike to 2.25%.^[2]

This is not financial advice. Charts are sourced from TradingView (EURUSD TradingView) and are indicative only.

Key points

• EURUSD fell to two-month lows near 1.1500 in early June as renewed Middle East hostilities supported dollar demand, and has since consolidated below the 4H 200-period moving average (MA) at 1.1588.
• US CPI for May came in at 4.2% year-on-year, in line with expectations, with energy prices accounting for the bulk of the monthly rise.
• The ECB meets today, 11 June 2026, with markets fully pricing a 25bp hike to 2.25%  –  the first rate increase since 2023. What Lagarde says after the decision could move the pair more than the hike itself.

What the EURUSD chart shows

The 4H chart shows EURUSD peaked near 1.1800 in early May before US strikes in the Middle East contributed to a sharp move lower in the pair. The drop in early June brought it from the 1.1600s to lows near 1.1500 within a few sessions.^[4]

Price has stabilised but both moving averages remain above it. The 4H 50-period MA is at 1.1659 and the 4H 200-period MA at 1.1588. The RSI (14) according to the TradingView setup used for this analysis reads 48.61, recovering from near-oversold levels in late May.

That 1.1588 level is the immediate reference point on the EURUSD chart heading into the ECB decision.

Two forces in the same session: US CPI and the ECB

May US CPI rose 0.5% month-on-month, putting the 12-month EURUSD rate-relevant reading at 4.2%.^[1] Energy drove most of the move, the energy index rose 3.9% in the month, following a 3.8% gain in April and a 10.9% surge in March.^[1] Core CPI (excluding food and energy) came in at 0.2% for the month and 2.9% year-on-year, slightly below the 0.3% monthly consensus.^[1]

For EURUSD, the CPI print had a mixed read. The in-line headline kept Fed hold expectations intact  –  the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on 17 June is widely expected to leave rates unchanged. The softer core monthly figure briefly supported the euro, but the pair gave back initial gains as Middle East tensions remained in the background.^[4]

The ECB decision today is the bigger event. The deposit facility rate stands at 2.00%, and markets fully price a 25bp hike to 2.25% – what would be the ECB’s first rate increase in several years.^[2] Governing Council communications since April have reinforced the consensus for today’s move.^[5]

What matters more is what Lagarde signals at the press conference on further hikes and the inflation-growth balance.

Key levels to watch

The table below sets out the levels visible on the uploaded chart and referenced in the body. These are reference zones, not trade signals.

Table 1: EURUSD key levels as of 01:40 UTC, 11 June 2026. Sources: TradingView, Vantage EURUSD CFD. Indicative only.

The 4H 200-period MA at 1.1588 has capped the EURUSD rate since the early-June drop. The 1.1500 level held as support; a move below it would put 1.1480-1.1490 in view.

The 4H 50-period MA at 1.1659 is the next overhead reference if the 200-period MA clears.

What to watch

These are the events most likely to move EURUSD in the near term:

• ECB rate decision and Lagarde press conference, 11 June 2026: The hike is priced. The press conference tone on future policy is what matters for positioning.
• FOMC meeting, 17 June 2026: Fed hold widely expected. How the committee characterises the 4.2% CPI print could influence the dollar leg of the pair.
• Middle East developments: Dollar safe-haven demand has been the primary driver of the EURUSD drop in early June. Any material shift in the conflict picture could reprice the pair quickly.
• US PPI, 12 June 2026: The next data point after today’s ECB. Alongside CPI, it completes the May inflation picture before the FOMC.

EURUSD has been reacting sharply to headlines. The 4H 200-period MA at 1.1588 and the 1.1500 support frame the current range. Both the ECB press conference and the 17 June FOMC carry intraday swing risk. Stop Loss placement relative to these levels is worth reviewing before either event, and combined exposure across correlated USD pairs should also be considered.

Leverage works in both directions and amplifies the effect of fast moves. In an event-driven environment like this, position sizing relative to account equity is worth revisiting before the ECB decision and again ahead of the FOMC on 17 June. Leverage is a double-edged tool; it magnifies losses as much as it magnifies gains.

RISK WARNING: CFDs are complex financial instruments and carry a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should ensure you fully understand the risks involved and carefully consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money before trading.

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References

[1] “Consumer Price Index – May 2026 – U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics” https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_06102026.htm Accessed on 11 June 2026.

[2] “ECB Watch Tool – ECB Interest Rate Probabilities – ecb-watch.eu” https://ecb-watch.eu/ Accessed on 11 June 2026.

[3] “CPI inflation report May 2026: Prices rose 4.2% annually – CNBC” https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/10/cpi-inflation-report-may-2026.html Accessed on 11 June 2026.

[4] “Euro US Dollar Exchange Rate – EUR/USD – Trading Economics” https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/currency Accessed on 11 June 2026.

[5] “Will the ECB give the final blow to the Euro?  –  FXStreet” https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-remains-near-two-month-lows-with-all-eyes-on-us-cpi-release-202606100722 Accessed on 11 June 2026.

[6] “Monetary Policy Decisions – April 2026 – European Central Bank” https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260430~81b7179e6f.en.html Accessed on 11 June 2026.

[7] “Monthly Forex Outlook – June 2026 – Kerius Finance” https://www.kerius-finance.com/en/analysis/market-letter-june-2026 Accessed on 11 June 2026.

[8] “EURUSD Outlook: Key Levels Defining 2026 Trends – Forex.com” https://www.forex.com/en-us/news-and-analysis/eurusd-outlook-key-levels-defining-2026-trends/ Accessed on 11 June 2026.