Gold price today: XAUUSD (Vantage XAUUSD CFD) traded at $4,126.71 as of 10:51 (GMT+8) / 02:51 (UTC) on 10 July 2026, up $9.82 (+0.24%) on the 4-hour session reviewed for this XAUUSD technical analysis.

In the latest XAUUSD news, it has been a tug of war of a week. A ceasefire between the US and Iran collapsed on 7 July 2026, sending gold prices to their lowest level in more than a week before the metal clawed back most of that loss on Thursday.^1,2 A day later, Fed minutes showed a central bank more divided on rates than it has been in some time.^3,4 Gold is stabilising between the competing forces of geopolitical risk and higher-for-longer rate expectations.

All prices below are as of the cut-off above unless noted otherwise. See all gold price news today here.

Key Points

• Gold fell to its lowest level in more than a week after US President Donald Trump said the ceasefire with Iran was “over,” then rebounded above $4,100 a day later as the US dollar eased.^1,2,5
• Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s 16 to 17 June meeting showed nine of 18 policymakers now expect rates to sit slightly higher by the end of 2026, one of the more divided outlooks under new Chair Kevin Warsh.^3,4
• China’s central bank added roughly 15 tonnes to its gold reserves in June, a 20th consecutive month of purchases and the largest single addition since October 2023.⁶

What the XAUUSD Chart Is Showing

On the 4-hour XAUUSD chart used for this analysis, the XAUUSD price traded in a range of $4,116.17 to $4,128.94 during the session reviewed, closing at $4,126.71. Tick volume on the TradingView CFD feed measured 23.33K during the session reviewed.

The chart’s 50-period moving average sat at 4,245.75, above the last traded price, while the 200-period moving average sat lower, at 4,094.60, with price consolidating between the two since Thursday’s rebound.

The RSI, per the XAUUSD TradingView setup used for this analysis, read 53.67, sitting above the 48.23 level on its moving-average overlay. Both readings sit near the midpoint of the indicator’s range, consistent with a market that has stabilised after its recent decline but has yet to establish a clear directional trend. Read this guide to learn everything you need to know about trading gold.

The Middle East Conflict Cuts Both Ways for Gold

Gold’s sharpest move this week came from geopolitics rather than from the Fed. Speaking at the NATO summit in Ankara on 7 July 2026, US President Donald Trump said the ceasefire with Iran was “over” and that engaging with Tehran further was “a waste of time.”¹ The remark followed fresh US strikes on Iran and the withdrawal of a waiver that had allowed Iranian oil sales, and coincided with Iranian attacks on shipping in the region. Gold dropped as much as 2.1% to below $4,030 on the news before paring some of that loss.¹

The pressure continued into 8 July 2026 as the US carried out a second day of strikes, this time aimed at limiting Iran’s ability to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.² Iran threatened a large-scale retaliatory operation against US bases in the region, and a further round of strikes on 9 July drew retaliatory attacks on Kuwait and Bahrain.^2,5

Oil prices jumped, briefly pushing the US crude benchmark back above $75 a barrel, before easing on Thursday.⁵ For gold prices, this kind of shock cuts both ways: conflict usually lifts safe-haven demand, but it also lifts energy prices, which feed straight into the inflation data the Fed watches most closely.^2,5

By Thursday, gold had rebounded above the $4,100 mark, up around 0.7% to 0.8% on the day as the US dollar eased from its recent highs.⁵ The move came even as Middle East headlines remained unresolved, a reminder that currency moves have been doing at least as much work on gold’s price this week as the conflict itself.

Read the latest commodity market news here.

The Fed Minutes Reveal a Divided Committee

Wednesday also brought the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s 16 to 17 June 2026 meeting, the first under new Chair Kevin Warsh. The record showed inflation concern building among policymakers even as the Fed held its benchmark rate at 3.50% to 3.75%.^3,4 A small number of participants said there was already a case to raise rates immediately, though they agreed to hold steady at that meeting.⁴

The broader committee appeared evenly split: most could see a path where inflation eases back toward the Fed’s 2% goal on its own, and also one where it stays elevated, with almost all of that latter group viewing a hike as necessary if that happens. New projections showed nine of 18 policymakers now expect rates slightly higher by the end of 2026, one of the Fed’s more divided outlooks yet.⁴

Spot gold slipped 0.9% to $4,068.09 in the immediate aftermath of the minutes, according to CNBC, though the metal had already been falling on the Iran headlines earlier in the session.³ Bank of America cut its 2026 average gold forecast by 14% to $4,360 the same week, while still projecting the metal could reach $5,000 once the current tightening cycle ends.³ HSBC made a similar move, cutting its 2026 forecast to $4,560 from $4,864 and 2027 to $4,925 from $5,000, citing stronger official-sector demand ahead.⁵

Markets were pricing around a 56% probability of a rate increase by the Fed’s September meeting as of 7 July 2026, according to the CME FedWatch tool cited by Reuters, down from more than 60% a week earlier after a softer-than-expected June jobs report.⁷ That reading predates Wednesday’s Fed minutes, which struck a more hawkish tone on inflation, so the probability may have shifted since. US CPI on 14 July 2026 and PPI the following day are the next scheduled data points markets will weigh against current rate-hike pricing.

Central Banks Keep Adding to Reserves Even as the Price Falls

One thread has stayed constant through all of this. China’s central bank added 480,000 troy ounces, roughly 15 tonnes, to its official gold reserves in June, according to Reuters, a 20th consecutive month of purchases and the largest single monthly addition since October 2023.⁶

The People’s Bank of China’s total holdings reached 75.44 million troy ounces by the end of June, even as the US-dollar value of those reserves fell to $303.72 billion from $340.75 billion in May, reflecting the decline in gold prices over the same period.⁶ Official-sector demand like this sits on a longer timeframe than this week’s headlines, but it’s worth tracking for gold’s longer-term demand.

Levels to Watch

The table below reflects the levels visible on the 4-hour chart used for this analysis. These are reference levels traders are watching, not a forecast of where price is headed next.

Table 1: XAUUSD 4-hour levels as of 10:51 (GMT+8) / 02:51 (UTC) on 10 July 2026. Source: theTradingView setup used for this analysis, Vantage XAUUSD CFD. Indicative only.

What to Watch This Week and Beyond

Here’s the latest gold news and data for the week ahead:

• US CPI, 14 July 2026: The next major inflation print, and the one most likely to move Fed rate-hike odds.
• US PPI, 15 July 2026: Released a day after CPI, giving a fuller read on the pipeline for consumer prices.
• Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Congressional testimony, week of 13 July 2026: Markets will listen for any shift in tone from this week’s minutes.
• FOMC meeting, 29 July 2026: The Fed’s next scheduled rate decision, and the first test of whether the current split resolves either way.
• Iran developments, ongoing: Any credible sign of a return to the ceasefire, or of further escalation, has moved oil and gold within minutes this week.

Given how much of this week’s move has come from headlines rather than data, standard intraday range assumptions carry less weight than usual. Stop Loss placement around the levels reviewed above matters more than usual here, and it’s worth checking combined exposure across correlated positions, since gold, oil, and the US dollar have all been reacting to the same headlines this week.

Leverage works in both directions in a market moving on geopolitical headlines as much as this one has this week. Position sizing relative to account equity is worth revisiting, particularly ahead of the CPI print on 14 July 2026 and the FOMC meeting on 29 July 2026. This piece will update as fresh gold price news breaks.

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References

[1] “Gold Holds Drop as US Strikes in Iran Cloud Rate-Hike Outlook – Bloomberg” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-07/gold-holds-drop-as-us-strikes-in-iran-cloud-rate-hike-outlook Accessed on 10 July 2026.

[2] “Gold Holds Decline as US Strikes on Iran Magnify Inflation Risks – Bloomberg” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-08/gold-holds-decline-as-us-strikes-on-iran-magnify-inflation-risks Accessed on 10 July 2026.

[3] “Gold wavers as investors weigh US strikes on Iran, await Fed minutes – CNBC” https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/08/gold-wavers-as-investors-weigh-us-strikes-on-iran-await-fed-minutes.html Accessed on 10 July 2026.

[4] “Fed policymakers saw inflation concerns mounting at June meeting, minutes show – Reuters” https://kfgo.com/2026/07/08/fed-policymakers-saw-inflation-concerns-mounting-at-june-meeting-minutes-show/ Accessed on 10 July 2026.

[5] “Gold Firms on Softer Dollar, Middle East Tensions – Reuters” https://www.gurutrade.com/news/gold-firms-on-softer-dollar-middle-east-tensions-1783599565.html Accessed on 10 July 2026.

[6] “China gold reserves rise most since 2023 even as bullion tumbles – Reuters” https://www.kitco.com/news/off-the-wire/2026-07-07/china-gold-reserves-rise-most-2023-even-bullion-tumbles Accessed on 10 July 2026.

[7] “Gold eases as markets await Fed minutes for direction – Reuters” https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-eases-markets-await-fed-025740099.html Accessed on 10 July 2026.