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Weekly outlook | important data to cause volatility

Vantage Updated Updated Tue, 2024 June 18 02:06

Important events this week:

After initial losses last week, the Dollar was able to stabilize again and even rise. Lower consumer had caused the Greenback to weaken. In the end the Fed did not adjust interest rates, which ultimately led to a strengthening Dollar. Current moves could continue this week while news events might underpin such view. The pressure of the Greenback might also weaken precious metals moving forward.

– AU interest rate decision – the Aussi was beaten by the Greenback and suffered losses at the end of last week. There are currently few signs of resistance, although the AUD could gain against the Euro and the Pound. Should the RBA cut interest rates, the AUD could continue to lose steam against the USD.

The weekly chart of the AUDUSD illustrates this trend. The downtrend might intensify below 0.6565, close to the 50- moving average. On the other hand, the AUD could also rise in particular against the EUR.

In this case, it is worth taking a look at the daily chart of the EURAUD at 1.6150. A break of the important support zone could occur if the central bank does not reduce rates. The interest rate decision will take place on Tuesday, 18 June at 06:30 CET.

– UK Consumer Price Index – consumer prices are expected to fall further. This could lead to further pressure on the Pound, which might noticeably weaken against the Dollar.

According to the weekly chart, the Pound was unable to strengthen last week indicating further losses. If it fails to break the strong resistance zone at 1.2800, downside potential might increase. Fast momentum towards the 50- moving average at 1.2570 could emerge. The consumer price index will be presented on Wednesday, 19 June at 06:30 CET

– CH- interest rate decision – the interest rate decision in Switzerland could move markets, as it is expected that they are being lowered. In this case, however, the Alpine currency does not necessarily have to come under pressure, as the outlook during the press conference might reveal.

The weekly chart is currently showing further downward pressure, as the 50-moving average previously limited the market. If the support zone at 0.8830 will be broken, there could be renewed potential for the CHF. The interest rate decision will take place on Thursday, 20 June at 09:30 CET.

– UK interest rate decision – The week will be rounded off with the interest rate decision in the UK. No rate adjustment is currently expected, although consumer price data could influence the market. However, as previously discussed, there could be further pressure in the GBPUSD currency pair should there be dovish news or a rate cut. The interest rate decision will take place on Thursday 20 June at 13:00 CET.