[The Weekly Wrap] Gold Nears $4,000 as Chip Selloff and Fed Rattle Wall Street

This is Vantage Markets’ weekly recap for 13-17 July 2026, with data current as of 17 July 2026, 16:00 (GMT+8) / 08:00 (UTC). In this week’s stock market news, an escalation in the Middle East conflict and a broad chip stock selloff dominated the tape, alongside the first congressional testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh.

The XAUUSD gold price fell toward the $4,000 handle even as US inflation cooled by more than expected, and second-quarter earnings season opened with a record-setting run of bank results. This weekly market analysis covers the week’s key drivers and next week’s calendar.

Key points

• The Middle East conflict escalated further this week, with renewed restrictions on Iranian shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and reports of continued strikes lifting oil prices, while a broadening chip stock selloff weighed on the Nasdaq and S&P 500 even as bank earnings opened the season strongly.
• Gold traded down toward $4,000 an ounce, its lowest level since November 2025, even after US CPI posted its largest monthly decline since April 2020, as Middle East-driven oil gains and Fed Chair Warsh’s first testimony kept the rate outlook uncertain following a divided June dot plot.
• Vantage’s coverage this week spanned GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, AUDUSD, gold, silver, DJ30, SP500, Nikkei 225, and share CFDs including AAPL, MSFT, AMD, and the newly listed SpaceX (SPCX), tracking how the same macro drivers moved across asset classes.

The week’s big story: the Middle East conflict and a chip stock selloff

Markets opened the week on the back foot. On 13 July, US President Donald Trump announced renewed restrictions on Iranian shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and oil prices moved higher on the news.^[1]

The S&P 500 fell 0.79% to 7,515.34, the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.55% to 25,873.18, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average eased 0.26% to 52,498.64. The conflict continued to escalate through the week, with reports of further strikes on successive nights, and the VIX volatility index jumped roughly 6% on Thursday alone.^[1][12]

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co reported June sales up 67.9% year on year, yet chip names across Europe and Asia, including Infineon, ASMI, ASML, and STMicroelectronics, still traded lower amid continued doubts over AI-related capital spending.^[1]

US bank earnings opened the season strongly on 14 July, with all five of the largest US banks beating estimates and JPMorgan Chase posting the highest quarterly profit in its history.^[13]

That chip stock selloff resurfaced later in the week. On 16 July, the S&P 500 fell again as chip weakness outweighed a run of solid second-quarter earnings, with Alphabet shares down more than 4% on reports the company had delayed its next flagship AI model.^[2]

By Friday, futures pointed to a softer open across Asia after the Nasdaq 100’s underlying index dropped 1.6% on Thursday, while US retail sales rose in line with expectations for June and initial jobless claims eased to 208,000.^[2][3]

XAUUSD gold price and US inflation data: a divided Fed keeps rates uncertain

The XAUUSD gold price spent the week under pressure, falling toward $4,000 an ounce and approaching its lowest level since November 2025, as Middle East-driven oil gains reinforced concerns that interest rates could stay elevated for longer, even as broader US inflation data cooled.^[4]

That cooling was larger than expected: US CPI fell 0.4% in June from May, the largest monthly decline since April 2020, pulling the annual rate down to 3.5% from 4.2%. US PPI fell 0.3% over the same month.^[6][14]

The US Dollar Index told the same story, reversing sharply on the CPI release before recovering to trade near 100.60 by midweek.^[15]

Fed Chair Warsh’s testimony was the key event tying the data to the rate outlook, delivering his first semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress before the House Financial Services Committee on 14 July and the Senate Banking Committee on 15 July.^[5]

Warsh cautioned against reading the cooler prints as “mission accomplished” on inflation, questioning how well CPI and PPI capture its current underlying state.^[6]

The backdrop remains the Federal Reserve’s June dot plot, which held the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% but showed a split committee: of 18 participants who submitted projections, nine project at least one further rate increase this year, eight project no change, and one projects a cut, with Chair Warsh notably declining to submit a dot of his own.^[7]

Market pricing for a September move has shifted with each data print and Warsh appearance this week; I’m not confident enough in any single probability figure to state one here, so readers are best served checking CME FedWatch directly or reviewing Vantage’s gold risk management guide rather than relying on a snapshot that may already be stale.

Forex, indices, and stocks Vantage covered this week

Across the instruments listed above, the same drivers, the Middle East conflict, a more cautious Fed, and the chip stock selloff, ran through Vantage’s coverage. On the forex side, our GBPUSD and USDJPY forecast coverage extended to USDCAD and AUDUSD, each shaped by dollar positioning and central bank commentary from the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Bank of Canada, and Reserve Bank of Australia.

On commodities, XAUUSD and XAGUSD traded lower alongside firmer rate expectations, while DJ30, SP500, and Nikkei 225 navigated the same chip stock rotation on the indices side. Share CFD coverage included AAPL, MSFT, and AMD, alongside a dedicated piece on the newly listed SpaceX (SPCX) stock. Readers can find the full breakdowns on Vantage’s full range of tradable instruments and this week’s XAUUSD daily gold price analysis.^[8]

Levels and figures from the week

The table below rounds up the week’s key reference figures.

Instrument	Level or Figure Observed This Week	What’s Happening
XAUUSD (Gold)	Around $3,995-$4,134	Trading down toward its lowest level since November 2025
S&P 500	7,515.34-7,572.42	Pressured early in the week by Middle East-related risk, again later by chip weakness
Dow Jones Industrial Average	52,498.64-52,659.18	Choppy, with a mid-week bank-earnings lift offset by tech-led pullbacks
Nasdaq Composite	25,873.18-26,269.23	Underperformed on chip-stock and Alphabet-specific weakness

Levels sourced from CNBC, Yahoo Finance, and Bloomberg market reports for the week of 13-17 July 2026.^{[1][2][3][11]} Indicative only, for informational purposes.

What to watch next week

The calendar stays busy. Second-quarter earnings season moves into its next phase, with Tesla, Alphabet, Texas Instruments, and IBM among nearly 80 S&P 500 constituents scheduled to report from 22 July, followed by Intel a day later.^[9][4]

The European Central Bank’s rate decision also falls in the week ahead, a cross-check for EURUSD positioning, alongside flash PMI and housing data in the US.^[9]

On the geopolitical side, markets stay focused on further developments in the Middle East conflict and their bearing on oil and inflation. The Federal Reserve’s next scheduled meeting is not until 28-29 July, so Fed commentary and incoming data are likely to do the work a rate decision normally would in the interim.^[10]

Managing risk into next week

This week’s price action across gold, the dollar, and chip-sensitive indices moved quickly on both scheduled data and unscheduled headlines out of the Middle East. Market participants often monitor Stop Loss placement around the levels referenced above, given how sensitive several of these instruments have been to single-day news events. Traders holding correlated positions across gold, equities, and USD pairs may want to review their combined exposure.

Leverage works both ways and can amplify gains as readily as losses in a week defined by headline-driven volatility. Vantage’s leverage definition and RSI definition pages cover these tools in more detail. Position sizing relative to account equity is worth revisiting ahead of next week’s earnings and central bank calendar.

RISK WARNING: CFDs are complex financial instruments and carry a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should ensure you fully understand the risks involved and carefully consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money before trading.

Disclaimer: The information is provided for educational purposes only and doesn’t take into account your personal objectives, financial circumstances, or needs. It does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to seek independent advice if necessary. The information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within. This material may contain historical or past performance figures and should not be relied on. Furthermore estimates, forward-looking statements, and forecasts cannot be guaranteed. The information on this site and the products and services offered are not intended for distribution to any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

References

[1] “Stock market news for July 13, 2026 – CNBC” https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/12/stock-market-today-live-updates.html Accessed on 17 July 2026.

[2] “Stock market news for July 16, 2026 – CNBC” https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/15/stock-market-today-live-updates.html Accessed on 17 July 2026.

[3] “Stock Market Today: Dow, S&P Live Updates for July 17 – Bloomberg” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-16/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates Accessed on 17 July 2026.

[4] “Nearly 80 S&P 500 companies report earnings next week – CNBC” https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/16/nearly-80-sp-500-companies-report-earnings-next-week-these-names-tend-to-beat-expectations.html Accessed on 17 July 2026.

[5] “Testimony by Chairman Warsh on the semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress – Federal Reserve Board” https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/warsh20260714a.htm Accessed on 17 July 2026.

[6] “Analysis: Fed Chairman Warsh faces an inflation credibility test after Congress hearings – CNBC” https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/15/fed-chairman-kevin-warsh-inflation-credibility-test-analysis.html Accessed on 17 July 2026.

[7] “Gold Price Outlook July 2026: The Price Fell. Case Intact. – GoldSilver” https://goldsilver.com/industry-news/article/gold-price-outlook-july-2026/ Accessed on 17 July 2026.

[8] “Gold (XAU/USD) Price Analysis – Vantage Markets” https://www.vantagemarkets.com/market-analysis/xauusd-gold-price-analysis-july-15-2026/ Accessed on 17 July 2026.

[9] “Chips, Oil, Weigh Early Despite Solid TSM Results – Charles Schwab” https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/stock-market-update-open Accessed on 17 July 2026.

[10] “2026 July – Federal Reserve Board Calendar” https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/2026-july.htm Accessed on 17 July 2026.

[11] “Stock Market News for July 16, 2026 – Yahoo Finance” https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-july-16-104300536.html Accessed on 17 July 2026.

[12] “Stock Market Today (July 16, 2026): Nasdaq, S&P 500 Fall as Semiconductor Slide Continues – TheStreet” https://www.thestreet.com/stock-market-today/stock-market-today-dow-jones-sp-500-nasdaq-updates-july-16-2026 Accessed on 17 July 2026.

[13] “Bank Earnings: JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America – CNBC” https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/14/jpm-bank-of-america-citi-bank-earnings-live-updates.html Accessed on 17 July 2026.

[14] “Consumer Price Index News Release – June 2026 Results – US Bureau of Labor Statistics” https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm Accessed on 17 July 2026.

[15] “[DAILY TRADING] USDX Analysis 15 July 2026 – Vantage Markets” https://www.vantagemarkets.com/market-analysis/us-dollar-index-forecast-usdx-cpi-fed-warsh-july-15-2026/ Accessed on 17 July 2026.