GBPUSD, also quoted as GBP/USD or GBP to USD, traded near 1.3382 as of 03:00 UTC (11:00 GMT+8) on 7 July 2026, holding close to a two-week high. The move followed a much weaker than expected US jobs report and a cautious tone from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey.

This GBPUSD forecast explains what the chart and current market developments are showing as of the stated cut-off time. It translates the price action; it does not call the trade. See all latest GBPUSD news here.

Key Points

• US non-farm payrolls rose by just 57,000 in June 2026, roughly half the forecast, coinciding with a softer US dollar and lifting GBP/USD.^[1]
• Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said rate cuts remain “off the table at the moment,” even as easing energy prices reduce inflation pressure.^[2]
• GBPUSD is trading above its 50-period moving average but is testing resistance just below its 200-period moving average, with the RSI on the TradingView setup used for this analysis at 51.16, in neutral territory.

What the GBPUSD (GBP/USD) Chart Is Showing

On the 15-minute chart, GBPUSD spent the early part of the week consolidating in a lower range, dipping toward the 1.3260s before a sharp move higher. The pair extended its recovery to around 1.3377 by 3 July 2026, coinciding with the release of the June 2026 US jobs report.^[4] By 6 July, the advance had carried the pair to an intraday high near 1.33915, its strongest level in roughly two weeks.^[9]

As of the cut-off above, the Vantage GBPUSD CFD was trading at 1.33824, having eased slightly from a recent high near 1.3392. The 50-period moving average sits at 1.33624 and the 200-period moving average at 1.33895, both attributed to the TradingView setup used for this analysis. Price remains above the 50-period moving average but is testing resistance just below the 200-period moving average, suggesting the short-term recovery is intact while longer-term resistance remains in place.

The RSI (14) on the same setup last printed 51.16, with its own moving average at 54.41, placing momentum in neutral territory and suggesting the advance has slowed rather than reversed.

The US Jobs Miss and a Cautious Bank of England

June’s US non-farm payrolls report, released on 2 July 2026, showed the economy added just 57,000 jobs, well below the roughly 113,000 forecast by economists.^[1] The unemployment rate fell to 4.2% from 4.3%, though this coincided with a drop in labour-force participation rather than stronger hiring.^[1] The softer print pressured the US dollar broadly and extended sterling’s rebound.^[4]

At the ECB’s Sintra forum on 1 July 2026, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation remains “too high” and declined to signal the Fed’s next move.^[3] On the same panel, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said rate cuts are “off the table at the moment,” even as falling energy prices ease some of the inflation pressure the Bank has been watching.^[2] Neither policymaker offered fresh forward guidance, leaving upcoming data and this month’s rate decisions to carry more weight for GBP/USD.

Sterling has also been unwinding some of the political-risk premium built up around the UK’s leadership transition. Andy Burnham, the frontrunner to become prime minister later this month, delivered a policy speech reiterating his commitment to the government’s existing fiscal rules, which markets read positively.^[5],[6]

Levels Traders Are Watching

The table below covers the zones traders are monitoring on GBP/USD. These are reference levels, not trade signals.

Table 1: Levels reflect the TradingView setup used for this analysis, as of 03:00 UTC (11:00 GMT+8) on 7 July 2026. Source: TradingView, Vantage.

A few things worth noting:

• The pair’s advance this week has closely tracked broader US dollar softness following the payrolls miss, with the Dollar Index also giving back earlier gains.^[8]
• Sterling’s rebound has coincided with markets pricing out some UK political uncertainty as Andy Burnham’s transition to Downing Street approaches.^[6]

What to Watch This Week and Beyond

• Bank of England Rate Decision, 30 July 2026: The next scheduled policy decision following Bailey’s comments at Sintra.
• Federal Reserve Rate Decision, 28-29 July 2026: Federal Reserve officials are next scheduled to meet at the end of July, following Warsh’s Sintra remarks.
• UK Leadership Transition, late July 2026: Andy Burnham’s expected move to Downing Street remains a swing factor for sterling positioning.

With GBPUSD trading near a multi-week high and reacting quickly to central bank commentary, price swings around the Bank of England and Federal Reserve decisions later this month can be sharp. Stop Loss placement around the 1.3355 and 1.3400 zones highlighted above is worth reviewing, along with overall exposure where GBPUSD positions sit alongside other US dollar pairs.

Leverage can magnify both gains and losses in either direction, and CFD trading carries a high level of risk. Position sizing relative to account equity is worth revisiting ahead of the Bank of England and Federal Reserve decisions at the end of July. This GBP to USD forecast will be updated as new GBPUSD news develops.

RISK WARNING: CFDs are complex financial instruments and carry a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should ensure you fully understand the risks involved and carefully consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money before trading.

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References

[1] “U.S. job creation cools in June with payrolls growth of just 57,000; unemployment rate at 4.2%” https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/02/jobs-report-june-2026-.html Accessed on 07 July 2026.

[2] “Bank of England’s Bailey Says Rate Cuts Are Still Off the Table” – Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-01/bank-of-england-s-bailey-says-rate-cuts-are-still-off-the-table Accessed on 07 July 2026.

[3] “Fed Chief Kevin Warsh declines to hint at July rate decision, but says inflation ‘too high’” – CNBC https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/01/kevin-warsh-ecb-forum-live-updates.html Accessed on 07 July 2026.

[4] “Pound To Dollar Price Forecast: GBP Surges After US Payrolls Miss Expectations” – Exchange Rates UK https://www.exchangerates.org.uk/news/46376/2026-07-03-pound-to-dollar-price-forecast-gbp-surges-after-us-payrolls-miss-expectations.html Accessed on 07 July 2026.

[5] “Pound To Dollar Week Ahead Forecast: GBP Surges As Weak US Payrolls Hits USD” – Exchange Rates UK https://www.exchangerates.org.uk/news/46386/2026-07-06-pound-to-dollar-week-ahead-forecast-gbp-surges-as-weak-us-payrolls-hits-usd.html Accessed on 07 July 2026.

[6] “British Pound – Quote – Chart – Historical Data – News” – Trading Economics https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/currency Accessed on 07 July 2026.

[7] “Weak June Jobs Report Quiets the Rate-Hike Conversation” – Kiplinger https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/economy/jobs-report-june-2026-what-to-expect Accessed on 07 July 2026.

[8] “GBP/USD Forecast, News and Analysis (Pound Sterling and US Dollar)” – FXStreet https://www.fxstreet.com/currencies/gbpusd Accessed on 07 July 2026.

[9] “British pound sterling to US dollars Exchange Rate History” – Wise https://wise.com/us/currency-converter/gbp-to-usd-rate/history Accessed on 07 July 2026.