Week Ahead: New month, new highs?

Stocks look to be on their way to record highs once more as we enter the final month of the year. The about turn in the chances of a quarter point Fed rate cut in the last couple of weeks has been brought about by recent Fedspeak which has pointed to policymakers pulling the trigger in a few weeks and seemingly asking questions later. That comes amid near 3% GDP growth and has boosted risk sentiment while overriding any lingering concerns about an AI bubble, stretched positioning and valuations.

Markets are getting back into the swing of economic data releases again, though the first Friday of a new month will not bring the monthly US non-farm payrolls report. Both the October and November employment releases have been pushed back until 16December, which is six days after the final FOMC meeting of the year. We are now in the Fed blackout period so won’t be hearing from any Fed officials in what has appeared to be a very mixed set of views across the Committee. Markets’ current 85% chance of a December cut could be tested by some the jobs data we get to see this week, with ISM, ADP and initial jobless claims all of interest. The ADP number could see a drop in employment if it follows the weekly trend.

December has traditionally been a month where the dollar tends to see broad-based selling pressure. Seasonality data points to the greenback weakening in near 70% of Decembers due to repatriation of profits and conversion of US-based revenues. This could intensify this year with US stocks markets attracting record foreign portfolio inflows this year.  The Dollar Index has moved below its 200-day SMA and a near-term upward trendline from the September low but is sat on a long-term low from July 2023.  

In Brief: major data releases of the week

Monday, 1 December 2025

– US ISM Manufacturing: November manufacturing activity is expected to tick up to 49.0 from 48.7 but it still sits in contractionary sub-50 territory. Focus will be on input costs, which recently cooled though remain elevated. New orders are expected to slow, in line with the PMI data.

Tuesday, 2 December 2025

– Eurozone CPI: Inflation remains steady in the region around the ECB’s 2% target. Services inflation will likely continue to offset downward pressure from the relatively strong euro and producer prices.

Wednesday, 3 December 2025

– US ISM Services: November non-manufacturing ISM is forecast to dip to 52.0 from 52.4. Input costs have recently been driven by tariffs and higher wages, but now reduced political concerns and the government reopening could help sentiment.  

Friday, 5 December 2025

– US Core PCE: The Fed’s favoured inflation gauge is September data. It is expected to rise 0.3% m/m and 2.9% y/y. The FOMC’s most recent median forecast saw the reading at 3.1% in 2025 but cooling to 2.6% next year.

– Canada Jobs: The October data was strong with a blockbuster 66.6k jobs added, led by part-time workers. This helped offset most of the losses seen in July and August. The jobless rate fell to 6.9% from 7.1%. US tariffs have hit economic growth this year.

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