Market Rebound as Rate Cut Hopes Resurface — Gold, Bitcoin, and Yen in Focus

Global markets, including Wall Street and the ASX, started the week with a modest rebound, snapping a three-day losing streak as cooling U.S. payroll data revived hopes of a Fed rate cut. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 1.5% and 2%, respectively, shaking off the uncertainty triggered by the recent softer jobs report.

According to CME FedWatch, markets are now pricing in a 92.2% chance of a September rate cut—sharply up from 63% before the jobs report—fueling a broad repricing in risk assets. Treasury yields slipped, and the U.S. dollar eased in response, helping lift sentiment globally.

The ASX 200 also advanced more than 1% on Tuesday, with all 11 sectors finishing in the green. As the countdown to the RBA’s next meeting on August 12th continues, investors are re-evaluating the odds of a 25 bps cut—now priced at 51%—following July’s surprise hold. The ASX 200 remains near multi-month highs, supported by resilient financials and solid earnings momentum.

With macro sentiment stabilising, traders are shifting their attention to technical views. Among the top-traded assets by Vantage clients—Gold, Bitcoin, and USD/JPY—each is hovering near pivotal zones. Let’s break down their technical setup for the week.

GOLD-XAU/USD

Gold continues to consolidate below key resistance at $3,434 after multiple failed attempts to break higher in July. The price remains within a broad ascending channel, but the recent bearish divergence on the KDJ momentum indicator suggests upside may be capped in the near term.

The 50-day SMA at $3,345 offers initial support, followed by a stronger floor around $3,260. A break below this could expose downside toward $3,180. On the upside, a clean breakout above $3,434 would invalidate the current range and open the door toward $3,510. For now, price action appears range-bound, with a bias tilting neutral to slightly bullish as long as the $3,260 support holds.

Bitcoin-BTC/USD

Bitcoin has been navigating within a well-defined ascending channel since last year, despite its characteristically volatile swings. Price action is currently capped below the mid-July peak of $121,175.

Short-term support is seen at $112,641—aligned with the 50-day EMA—and a decisive break below could trigger a deeper pullback toward $108,138 or even $107,848, as illustrated in the red dashed path. On the flip side, bulls need to reclaim $115,645 (20-day EMA) to regain upward momentum.

KDJ momentum indicators show a bearish crossover, though early signs of a rebound from oversold territory suggest near-term consolidation or a potential breakout attempt. The overall trend remains bullish while BTC stays above the lower trendline of the rising channel, but traders should watch for a potential retest of the lower support zone before the next leg higher.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY is attempting to conquer the upper boundary of a multi-month symmetrical triangle but stopped by the ceiling of the moving tunnel at 150.84. Despite recent yen weakness due to the strength of greenback and BoJ’s dovish tone last week, the pair has yet to break decisively above this key resistance. The 200-day EMA at 147.52 offers immediate support, with deeper levels seen at 146.58 and 144.96.

Momentum indicators are sending mixed signals: KDJ suggests oversold conditions, while price remains supported by a bullish EMA stack. A confirmed breakout above 150.00 could target 151.00—the April high.

Fundamentally, the pair remains highly sensitive to the rate divergence between the Fed and the BoJ. The upcoming U.S. CPI data and BoJ commentary will be key catalysts in the near term.

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