EURUSD dropped to 1.1523 as of 05:54 UTC (13:54 GMT+8) on 8 June 2026 – its weakest print since early April – after May US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) nearly doubled the consensus forecast and firmed the dollar across the board. The EURUSD chart now sits below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with the ECB decision on 11 June the next major catalyst. This is not financial advice. All prices are Vantage EURUSD CFD, 05:54 UTC (13:54 GMT+8), 8 June 2026.^[8]

Key Points

• EURUSD fell to 1.1523 as of 05:54 UTC (13:54 GMT+8) on 8 June 2026, slipping below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages on the daily EURUSD chart.
• May US Non-Farm Payrolls printed 172,000 against an 85,000 consensus, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics, marking the second consecutive monthly beat and firming the dollar.^[1][2]
• Money-market pricing indicated a roughly 90% probability of a 25bp ECB hike to 2.25% on 11 June, while Eurozone Q1 2026 GDP contracted for the first time since late 2022, according to Eurostat.^[4][6]

EURUSD Chart Analysis: Below Both Moving Averages

The daily EURUSD chart shows the pair has formed a series of lower highs since the April-May peak near 1.18, suggesting weakening upside momentum. The 50-day moving average is at 1.1679 and the 200-day moving average at 1.1670, with the current price trading below both – a development that supports a short-term bearish bias on the Vantage EURUSD CFD.

The RSI on the TradingView setup used for this analysis reads 34.42, approaching oversold territory. The signal line sits at 42.89. The session low printed 1.1506, with a modest intraday recovery to 1.1523 at the cut-off time. Broker-reported volume on the Vantage CFD feed registered 40.31K, below broker-reported levels seen around the 6 June NFP release.

What Is Driving EURUSD Today

US side: NFP doubles the forecast

May Non-Farm Payrolls came in at 172,000 on 6 June 2026, against a consensus of 85,000, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics.^[1] April’s payrolls were revised to 179,000 – also above the prior consensus – making May the second consecutive monthly beat.^[2] The Federal Open Market Committee maintained its target range at 3.50%-3.75% at the April 29 meeting,^[5] but strong labour data has shifted market expectations toward a potential hike by year-end, with CME FedWatch data showing zero cuts priced for 2026.

Euro side: 3.2% inflation versus a contracting economy

Eurozone consumer price inflation hit 3.2% year-on-year in May 2026, up from 3.0% in April, according to Eurostat’s flash estimate.^[3] Energy costs drove the headline rise, while services inflation accelerated to 3.5% and core inflation climbed to 2.5%. At the same time, Eurozone Q1 2026 GDP was revised to show a contraction – the steepest since mid-2020, per Eurostat.^[4]

The ECB held its deposit rate at 2.00% on 30 April but flagged upside inflation risks and downside growth risks intensifying.^[6] Market-implied pricing ahead of 8 June pointed to a roughly 90% probability of a 25bp hike to 2.25% at the 11 June meeting – a move that appears largely absorbed into the euro already, which may explain why the currency has found limited support despite the hawkish turn.^[7]

Key EURUSD Levels to Watch

Reference levels from the daily EURUSD chart as of 05:54 UTC (13:54 GMT+8), 8 June 2026. These are not trade signals.

Table 1: Key EURUSD levels as of 8 June 2026. Sources: TradingView, Vantage EURUSD CFD, Forex.com^[10]. Indicative only.

What to Watch

• ECB rate decision, 11 June 2026: OIS pricing points to a roughly 90% probability of a 25bp hike to 2.25%. The swing factor is the forward guidance: hawkish language on further hikes could offer the euro short-term support; a hike paired with growth caution may limit upside given the Q1 GDP contraction.
• ECB press conference, 11 June 2026: President Lagarde’s tone on the growth-inflation trade-off is the key read-across for EURUSD market outlook beyond the rate number itself.
• US CPI, mid-June 2026: Hot US inflation reinforces the case for Fed hawkishness and keeps the dollar firm, capping EURUSD. A softer print reopens the rate cut debate and shifts the pair’s direction.
• Middle East conflict: Oil prices remain elevated after supply disruption from the conflict. Any credible progress toward a resolution removes an inflation driver for the eurozone, a net energy importer.

Background range analysis for EURUSD in 2026 draws from Cambridge Currencies and Forex.com.^[9][10]

Risk Management Considerations

The 2026 low of 1.1435 is roughly 90 pips below the current price. With the ECB decision three days away, moves on 11 June could be sharp. Stop Loss considerations may become more relevant around major central-bank events. Traders often monitor nearby support and resistance zones when assessing risk ahead of binary catalysts. Those holding positions across multiple euro pairs should also check total correlated exposure, as EURUSD and EURGBP can move in the same direction around ECB decisions.

Leverage works both ways, and an event-driven market like this one can gap price beyond normal intraday ranges. Position sizing and risk-management considerations may become more important around major central-bank decisions, particularly for anyone holding overnight into the announcement. CFDs on EURUSD traded via Vantage carry the standard CFD risk profile.

RISK WARNING: CFDs are complex financial instruments and carry a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should ensure you fully understand the risks involved and carefully consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money before trading.

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References

[1] “The Employment Situation, May 2026 – Bureau of Labor Statistics” https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.htm Accessed on 8 June 2026.

[2] “The Employment Situation, April 2026 – Bureau of Labor Statistics” https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_05082026.htm Accessed on 8 June 2026.

[3] “Euro Area Annual Inflation Up to 3.2%, May 2026 Flash Estimate – Eurostat” https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-euro-indicators/w/2-02062026-ap Accessed on 8 June 2026.

[4] “GDP and Main Aggregates, Preliminary Flash Estimate Q1 2026 – Eurostat” https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/web/products-press-releases/-/2-30042026-AP Accessed on 8 June 2026.

[5] “Federal Reserve Issues FOMC Statement, April 29, 2026 – Federal Reserve” https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260429a.htm Accessed on 8 June 2026.

[6] “Monetary Policy Decisions April 2026 – European Central Bank” https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260430~81b7179e6f.en.html Accessed on 8 June 2026.

[7] “Euro Area Interest Rate – Trading Economics” https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/interest-rate Accessed on 8 June 2026.

[8] “EUR/USD Quote Chart – Trading Economics” https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/currency Accessed on 8 June 2026.

[9] “Euro Forecast 2026: EUR/USD Outlook and June ECB Decision – Cambridge Currencies” https://cambridgecurrencies.com/euro-forecast/ Accessed on 8 June 2026.

[10] “EURUSD Outlook: Key Levels Defining 2026 Trends – Forex.com” https://www.forex.com/en-us/news-and-analysis/eurusd-outlook-key-levels-defining-2026-trends/ Accessed on 8 June 2026.