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近10年黃金價格及黃金走勢分析  

目錄

近10年黃金價格及黃金走勢分析  

近10年黃金價格及黃金走勢分析  

Vantage Updated Updated Fri, 2023 January 13 10:18

縱觀歷史,黃金一直是全球經濟和政治情緒的重要“晴雨表”。從示巴女王送給所羅門國王的黃金禮物,到加利福尼亞的淘金熱,貴金屬一直以來都將大家的心靈牢牢套住。 

市場的波動,例如中央銀行的購買和通貨膨脹等,使黃金持續具有吸引力,也讓投資者時刻關注潛在的交易機會。 

本文將分析讓黃金被視爲資產類別的主要原因,並深入研究過去十年的價格走勢,深入發現近期推動黃金走勢的一些基本面以及技術面原因。 

黃作爲資產類別 

黃金從一千年前被視為擁有許多財富的象徵以及積纍資產的指標。憑藉其作爲貨幣和珠寶等的實用性,黃金以“投資的避風港”備受青睞,更被用作分散風險的戰略。 

  • 避風港 

對於投資者來說,黃金在動市場動盪和波動期間仍有保值或升值的趨勢,是一種相當穩定的資產。從歷史數據來看,黃金價格在動盪時期上漲的例子很多,比如 2020 年全球疫情期間,買家將黃金價格推高至 2,075 美元的歷史新高,便是一個非常典型的例子。 

  • 通脹對沖 

黃金即使在通貨膨脹時期,也是一種相當有吸引力的資產。雖然通貨膨脹意味著購買力低下,但是要是有黃金在身,就可以免受價格因通脹水漲船高和貨幣貶值的影響。所以黃金是一種長期的通脹對沖工具。 

反之,在風險較小、市場較平穩的時期,對黃金以及其他貴金屬的需求也普遍下降。畢竟市場上還有許多可選擇的投資類別。 

過去 10 年黃金走勢 

  • 在 2008 年全球金融危機和 20 年代初歐元主權債務危機之後,金價在十年間保持了 1,000 美元以上的價位。這兩個歷史性的經濟危機,讓越多人認知黃金作為對沖工具的重要性,進而讓黃金的投資需求上升。 
  • 2012 年,由於通脹嚴重、量化寬鬆刺激措施和主要央行尋求資產基礎多樣化等,導致黃金價格處於高位。 
  • 在 2013 年突破 1,550 美元的支撐位後,在 2014 年美元走勢强勁,打擊了黃金的價格。 2015 年 12 月下旬, 黃金也隨著通脹率下降 0.1%,跌至 1,046 美元。 
  • 黃金價格在十年的中段在 1,122 美元至 1,375 美元之間盤整。通脹雖上升,但美元也隨之升值。 
  • 2016 年終於向上突破。中美貿易戰、其他地緣政治問題和更多央行对黄金的需求形成了一個看漲的行情。 
  • 在 2020 年 8 月的 2019冠狀病毒疫情期間,黃金創下了 2,075 美元的新高。對經濟衰退的擔憂以及貨幣和財政刺激措施推高了黃金價格。去年市場在 1,800 美元上方盤整,然後在 2022 年 3 月又飆升至 2,070 美元。今年迄今為止,烏克蘭衝突和通脹飆升一直支撐著黃金價格。 
  • 近期值得關注的高點包括 2021 年 6 月1,916 美元的高點和 2021 年 11 月1,877 美元的高點。通脹上升可能對“實際”利率產生抑制作用。市場利率是否會遠高於通脹率還有待觀察。 
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