This market commentary is prepared for general informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, recommendation, or solicitation to trade any financial product. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Market prices are subject to change without notice.

Market Background

Global markets experienced a sharp change in tone last week.
Early optimism came from hopes that the Federal Reserve could start easing rates before year-end after weaker U.S. data signalled slowing growth and cooling inflation. This drove equities and risk assets higher, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 both setting new record highs.

Midweek, however, sentiment flipped after Donald Trump threatened 100% tariffs on Chinese imports and hinted at tighter export restrictions. The renewed trade-war fears triggered broad risk-off flows, sending stocks, cryptocurrencies, and oil prices lower, while gold and the U.S. dollar gained as safe-haven assets.

Gold reached a new record high near $4,000 per ounce, reflecting investor concern over policy uncertainty and rising global debt. Bitcoin, which had started the week strong, declined nearly 10% amid a shift away from higher-risk assets. The U.S. dollar index (DXY) firmed up, supported by defensive demand, while crude oil (WTI) slumped to five-month lows amid concerns of slower global trade and weaker manufacturing activity.

The week ended with markets defensive, with gold and the U.S. dollar remaining supported, while equities and commodities softened.

EURUSD

Fundamental View:

The euro remained under pressure as trade tensions favored dollar strength. Softer Eurozone data, coupled with cautious ECB rhetoric, reinforced the downside bias.

Technical Outlook:

• Next Resistance: 1.06600 (50% Fibonacci retracement)
  
• Next Support: 1.05500 (recent swing low)
  

Next Major Support: 1.0400 (Psychological Level)

Trading Plan:

EURUSD continues to trade within a downward trend channel. Market participants are monitoring resistance near 1.06600 and support around 1.05500 for signs of continued range movement. A sustained move above 1.08000 may indicate a potential shift in short-term momentum.

USDJPY

Fundamental View:

The dollar remained strong, supported by widening rate differentials. However, Japanese officials continue to monitor the yen’s weakness closely, creating the risk of intervention if volatility rises sharply.

Technical Outlook:

• Resistance: 153.000, having broken through the 150.000-151.000 resistance zone
  
• Support: 150.000 (Fib 50% Retracement of the September–October rally)
  

Next Resistance: 155.000

Trading Plan:

USDJPY approached a key resistance area near 153 before retreating modestly. The current pullback brings attention to potential support between 150.00 and 148.80, while resistance remains near 155.00

GOLD (XAUUSD)

Fundamental View:

Gold remains the week’s top performer, benefiting from renewed geopolitical risks, tariff uncertainty, and falling yields. Demand for safety and inflation hedging pushed it into uncharted territory.

Technical Outlook:

• Resistance: $4,050 (Fib extension of $3,720–$3,950 swing)
  
• Next Resistance: $4,100 (psychological mark and measured move target)
  

Support: $4,000

Trading Plan:

Gold continued to attract safe-haven demand after trading above the $4,000 level last Friday. A correction toward the same level could lead to renewed interest among market participants. Gold may continue to face resistance around $4,050, its recent all-time high.

BTCUSD (Bitcoin)

Fundamental View:

Bitcoin’s rally lost steam as risk sentiment deteriorated. The market remains range-bound as investors rotate capital toward safer assets.

Technical Outlook:

• Next Resistance: $125,000 Region
  
• Support: $110,000 (recent low)
  

Next Support: $110,000 (Fib 61.8% retracement of July–October upswing)

Trading Plan:

Bitcoin remains range-bound between $110,000 and $125,000, reflecting mixed sentiment. A move below $115,000 could indicate further weakness toward the $110,000 area.

S&P 500 (SPX500)

Fundamental View:

The S&P 500 retreated sharply after tariff threats erased early-week gains. Tech and semiconductor names bore the brunt of the selloff as traders de-risked portfolios.

Technical Outlook:

• Next Resistance: 6,750 (record high and key breakout level)
  

Next Support: 6,500 (Fib 50% level and previous swing base)

Trading Plan:

The S&P 500 has recently reached multiple record highs before retreating. The 6,500 area is being monitored as a potential zone of market stabilisation after recent gains.

NASDAQ 100 (NAS100)

Fundamental View:

The Nasdaq saw heavy volatility, as semiconductor and AI-driven stocks corrected sharply on renewed trade fears.

Technical Outlook:

• Resistance: 25,300
  

Next Support: 24,000 (Fib 50% retracement and previous pivot)

Trading Plan:

 The index may continue consolidating around the 24,000 support level. A move below 24,000 could indicate extended weakness, while sustained trading above this level may suggest improving sentiment.

WTI Crude Oil (USOIL)

Fundamental View:

WTI oil declined to multi-month lows as trade war concerns weakened global demand projections. Higher U.S. inventories added to bearish sentiment.

Technical Outlook:

• Next Resistance: $60.00 (50% retracement and prior supply zone)
  
• Support: $59.00 (swing low)
  

Next Support: $55.00 (Fib extension of recent decline)

Trading Plan:

WTI continues to face downward pressure below the $60 level. Prices may continue to fluctuate between $58 and $60 amid ongoing volatility. A move above $63.00 could indicate a potential change in near-term direction.

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX (DXY)

Fundamental View:

The U.S. dollar index strengthened through most of the week on safe-haven demand. Risk-off sentiment, coupled with weakness in the euro and yen, supported the dollar

Technical Outlook:

• Next Resistance: 100.000 (swing high and Fib extension level)
  

Next Support: 98.200 (Fib 50% retracement and former breakout zone)

Technical Observations:

 The U.S. dollar index remains supported while trading above 98.200. Stability around the 98.000 area may encourage continued interest in the dollar. Market participants are watching the 100.000 level as potential resistance.

Key Highlights

Markets shifted decisively from optimism to caution last week. Gold and the U.S. dollar remained the clear winners, while stocks, Bitcoin, and oil saw significant pullbacks.

Looking ahead, traders should focus on:

1. The tone of U.S.–China trade headlines.
   
2. Fed communication and data on inflation.
   

Price reactions around key Fibonacci and psychological support/resistance levels, which will dictate short-term direction across markets.

RISK WARNING: CFDs are complex financial instruments and carry a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should ensure you fully understand the risks involved and carefully consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money before trading.

Disclaimer: The information is provided for educational purposes only and doesn’t take into account your personal objectives, financial circumstances, or needs. It does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to seek independent advice if necessary. The information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within. This material may contain historical or past performance figures and should not be relied on. Furthermore, estimates, forward-looking statements, and forecasts cannot be guaranteed. The information on this site and the products and services offered are not intended for distribution to any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.