Week Ahead: Mood likely choppy with Nvidia and NFP in focus

A super interesting week lies ahead after a relatively tumultuous few days in which stocks saw flows shift from supportive to destructive. We had been hinting at this for a while, with stretched AI valuations and the recent hawkish Fed rate cut all primed to grab centre stage at some point. Of course, timing these things is what we all try and do best; after all, we are here to tell you about significant themes in a timely fashion, and when they might impact the market and price action.

The ‘elevator down’ dynamics were in play in the latter part of last week. This describes the tendency for the stock market to experience sharp, rapid declines (‘elevator down’) after a period of gradual growth (‘stairs up’). Investor psychology plays a big part in this as relative fear can cause panic selling amid 24/7 news coverage about “Wall Street tumbling”. Market dynamics are also key as huge trading algos amplify the drops. And yet the benchmark S&P 500 is actually still less than 4% from its record high while the tech-laden Nasdaq is around 5.7% off its all-time top.

Do we get a seasonal Santa rally? A healthy correction of frothy markets is historically a good thing over the long term. Much will depend on Nvidia’s results which will be published after the US closing bell on Wednesday. Focus will be on commentary around demand and spending trends. Also of note will be some of the biggest US retailer earnings reports, like Walmart and Home Depot, which will be published through the week.

The dearth of US data had left FX markets volatility muted but this will pick up this week with the release (finally!) of the US September NFP report (and NVDA’s results). We note open interest on bullish Treasury options increased significantly last week, suggesting the prevailing call is for soft US data which will prompt dovish Fed repricing. But markets have shifted in recent days on more hawkish Fedspeak, with traders now seeing only a 45% chance of a 25bp December Fed rate cut from near double this less than a month ago. Again, we’ll be watching both the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq’s 50-day SMAs as support/resistance. We haven’t seen three straight weeks of losses in the Nasdaq since March.

In Brief: Major data releases of the week

Monday, 17 November 2025

Canada CPI: The Bank of Canada expects inflation to ease as energy prices fall. But base effects may see price pressures pick up in the short-term, early in the new year.

Wednesday, 19 November 2025

UK CPI: Analysts forecast the headline rate to ease to 3.6% from 3.8% due to base effects after the Ofgem adjustment. Services inflation should also cool with softer wage growth. BoE December rate cut odds for a 25bps move stand around 80%.  

FOMC Minutes: Markets will focus on the heavily divided Fed which had one hawkish and one dovish dissenter, after what was deemed a hawkish Powell press conference. Markets see a 25bps December rate cut as a coin toss.

Nvidia Earnings: The AI boom bellwether reports after the US closing bell. Consensus forecast EPS of $1.25 on revenues of $55.1bn. Options markets see a +/- 6.4% implied one-day move post-results.  Nvidia carries an 8% weight in the S&P 500 and a roughly 10% weight in the widely followed Nasdaq 100, so as we always say, where NVDA goes, so too the market.

Thursday, 20 November 2025

Japan CPI: October nationwide inflation is expected to accelerate driven by broad-based goods and services price gains. Tokyo CPI has been hot in recent months, and this could cause the odds of a December BoJ hike to increase, which currently sit around 32%.

US Non-Farm Payrolls: Consensus estimates of this September data are vague, and the report is somewhat dated. Job estimates come in around 45k with an unemployment rate remaining steady at 4.3%. Alternative labour market data have painted a mixed picture with growth sluggish but not falling apart.

Friday, 21 November 2025

Global PMIs: Services should likely bolster the composite print in the eurozone, though there’s recently been a series of disappointing hard data. UK PMIs may be clouded by budget uncertainty again, after worse than expected metrics in September. 

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