Week Ahead: Middle East War Continues

Crises are often where trading careers can be made or broken. Time and again, you hear after major events how one fund or another made x amount on that breakout or alternatively lost out and had to close down their fund. For us as personal traders the difference is essentially how you trade these historic moments, not how smart our macro view is. At the end of the day, we are not geopolitical experts and even those guys don’t have an edge that they can confidently say what is going to happen. We always say to our trading desk colleagues, ones who trade their own money, their own “p.a”, make sure you can come back the next day.

We regularly say at the end of our Monday webinar, especially when the week ahead could be volatile, to make sure to size positions correctly. Risk management is the component to becoming a long-term trader and if you haven’t sized your position in line with your trading pot, you will blow up quickly, and potentially within seconds or minutes when markets are whippy and volatile. You should still get bang for your buck so to speak, but you don’t blow up your account. We use the ATR to gauge position size and vol. Make sure you can come back the next day.

In the current environment, it’s important to remember that big market moves can always get much bigger. That can often mean usual technical indicators go out of the window as prices continue higher and overextended for a prolonged period; for example more overbought on the RSI, up and away along the Bollinger band or upper Keltner channel. “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent” is an apt phrase. Remember negative oil prices back in April 2022? But at some point, they will pause and certain indicators will signal this for position entry or exit. What is key is to keep an open mind, as prices will go where they want, completely irrespective of your view and fundamentals too. Make sure you can come back the next day.

One final word would be to make sure you participate in markets when volatility is high. Typically as traders, we live for volatility and markets that move. The best traders do not freeze and do nothing; they respond to the stress and stick to the process and trade. Cut your position size, as that controls your risk but do not sit on your hands and then tell others how good a day you have had. Volatility is why we are here, what we generally crave in markets so use your edge to your benefit, likely having been adapted for current price action and trade. At some point in the future, we will be back to normal trading conditions so don’t regret what might have been.

As for markets this week, Hormuz Strait traffic will again be crucial. Brent crude recorded its second biggest weekly increase on record, WTI its biggest and it seems only a matter of time before prices hit $100 if oil flows through the Strait do not restart. European stocks have given back all their 2026 gains and have underperformed US indices, and this may continue as the eurozone is a net energy importer. Meanwhile, the dollar is correlated closely with oil prices at present. For these moves to reverse, President Trump’s off-ramp is critical with a China summit still set for the end of this month, and the midterm elections towards the end of the year. Higher energy costs are inflationary, but they also put more pressure on consumer finances and can ultimately be demand destructive, which will push core inflation pressures lower over the medium to longer term.

In Brief: Major Data Releases of the Week

Wednesday, 11 March 2026

US CPI: These are pre-Middle East conflict February figures so markets may look through them. The headline print is forecast at 0.2% m/m and 2.5% y/y, and the core at 0.3% m/m and 2.4% y/y. Goods prices may keep some upward pressure from tariffs, but softer shelter costs are expected to offset this.

Friday, 13 March 2026

UK GDP: January growth is expected at 0.3% m/m, two-tenths above the prior reading. Momentum has picked up since the November Budget and shaken off the subdued second half of last year. 

US Core PCE: The Fed’s favoured inflation gauge is predicted to rise 0.3% m/m from 0.4% and unchanged at 2.9% y/y. The stronger than expected PPI data feeds into this report. The Middle East conflict will certainly overshadow but with little clarity on the short-term spike or longer-term persistent implications of the macro energy supply shock.

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