Week Ahead: Greenland and tariffs centre stage

As we said last week, geopolitics is likely to be an enduring theme in markets with President Trump’s radar now firmly on Greenland, which is shaking European capitals. As usual, there’s very little detail on how the White House intends to administer his latest announcement of new tariffs, which target eight European countries, in effect  the whole zone. The high drama surrounding when the US Supreme Court will issue its tariff decision also returns on Tuesday, after the US Martin Luther King Jnr holiday. That said, January 20 may not see an opinion as it will be put off again, so avoiding the first anniversary of Trump 2.0’s inauguration.

The world instead awaits the World Economic Forum in Davos with the US’s largest ever delegation. Themed “The Spirit of Dialogue”, the annual gathering of the world’s top finance people will see President Trump speak on Wednesday. More importantly, we could finally get the much-anticipated Fed Chair announcement. Last week, Trump signalled he may prefer to keep the dovish Hassett in his current role. This saw betting markets swing heavily in favour of Warsh, which notably pushed up Treasury yields with the 10-year yield hitting its 200-day SMA. Confirmation of Warsh may mean less Fed rate cuts and some support for the dollar, which is actually not what Trump desperately wants.

Stocks hit more record highs last week, along with more metal peaks from gold, silver and copper. The US benchmark S&P 500 is a whisker away from 7,000, with performance broadening out away from megacap Tech stocks. Industrials, energy and materials have emerged as leaders in 2026, continuing the diversification theme outside US (Big Tech) equities seen last year. Indeed, that broad-based index is still underperforming European and Asian indices, even as the ‘Sell America’ theme hasn’t yet taken off again.  

In Brief: major data releases of the week

Monday, 19 January 2026

-China Data: Q4 GDP is forecast at 4.4%, down from Q3’s 4.8%, with 2025 growth at 4.9%. The economy remains weak due to muted domestic demand amid the real estate woes. Fixed asset investment will likely fall further into negative territory; retail sales will slow but industrial production should rebound. 

-Canada CPI: Headline inflation is predicted to print at 2.2%, while the core (median and trim) measures are seen at 2.8%, matching November’s pace. This report will be boosted by last year comparisons, but prices should moderate to the bank’s target through 2026. 

Tuesday, 20 January 2026

-UK Jobs: Unemployment is expected to tick down one-tenth to 5% though there are big reliability concerns. Average earnings (ex-bonus) are forecast at 4.5%, with the downtrend seen continuing this year. GBP/USD is trying to cling onto its 200-day simple moving average, which sits at 1.3398, while EUR/GBP is hovering just above its 200-day SMA at 0.8641. Last week, GBP/JPY hit long-term resistance from August 2008 at 214.11.

Wednesday, 21 January 2026

-UK CPI: The headline and core rates are both expected to rise one-tenth to 3.3%. December services inflation is predicted to rise two-tenths to 4.6%, though higher airfares and when the data was collected will impact these figures.  Market pricing implies a BoE cut in June with around 27bps seen currently; soft data would bring April’s odds nearer, with around 21bps priced at the moment. 

Thursday, 22 January 2026

-Australia Jobs: Consensus expects 25k jobs to be added in December, after the negative downside surprise last time. The unemployment rate is seen ticking up one-tenth to 4.4%, with the participation rate modestly recovering. There’s a high chance of a rate hike by June, with roughly 21bps priced in. The aussie is hovering just below 0.67 and resistance here has recently proved tough to break.

-US Core PCE: The Fed’s preferred measure of consumer inflation is expected to print at 0.2% m/m and 2.8% y/y. These November figures may be influenced by missing data sources during the government shutdown. A print near 3% reinforces the Fed’s wait-and-see stance.  

Friday, 23 January 2026

-Global PMIs: Economists believe modest growth momentum should continue with the indices near to prior December levels. UK data has shown signs of recovery after the budget gloom. Eurozone figures should cement the recent solid services momentum. 

-Bank of Japan meeting: The BoJ is widely expected to keep the policy rate steady at 0.75%. The latest quarterly outlook will also be released with possible higher growth and inflation forecasts. Guidance and comments on the weak yen and pass through to inflation, will be key. Last week saw USD/JPY push up past the January 2025 high at 158.87, before prices closed below on a weekly basis. Domestic politics has been a big driver with a snap election called for as soon as 8^th or 15^th February.

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