Week Ahead: Geopolitics, earnings and US CPI in focus

It’s been an eventful start to the new year, and that isn’t expected to change any time soon. Although the calendar is light, we have major data points like US inflation data, plus there could be the announcement of the new Fed Chair as well as a decision on the legality of US tariffs. The latter is expected to see a rejection of the use of tariffs, but how, under what terms and how President Trump will respond are all highly uncertain.

As we wrote last week, geopolitical events don’t normally impact financial markets for long, and certainly crude oil has virtually shrugged off events in Venezuela. Despite having the world’s largest proved oil reserves, Venezuela’s share of world oil supply is a mere 1%. Furthermore, Venezuelan oil is heavy making it more expensive to process, while there are major questions marks around the big US oil giants wanting to invest in a notoriously volatile country. Interestingly, according to estimates, the breakeven oil price for new projects in Venezuela is $80, and as there is already excess supply in the world market, ultimately prices are expected to stay much lower in the near future.

That said, geopolitics is likely to be an enduring theme with Iran’s Islamic regime on President Trump’s radar, with current anti-government protests possibly giving the US grounds to intervene. Other neighbouring countries like Mexico and Columbia are also getting White House heat, with Greenland interest shaking European capitals. It all means safe haven assets should be underpinned with support, with gold’s push higher on Friday looking good to challenge the record high at $4,550 and fresh peaks.

The fourth quarter and full year earnings season kicks off this week with the major US banks leading the way. Consensus expects mild gains over the same quarter a year ago, but it’s very likely they will beat as analyst estimates are now always too conservative. Bank results give us a wider barometer on consumer spending habits and trends, while their views on the credit cycle amid a slowing labour market will be watched. The overall earnings season should also be monitored for profit margins, as they’ve been holding up well even though tariffs were supposed to impact.

In Brief: major data releases of the week

Tuesday, 13 January 2026

-US CPI: December inflation data is forecast to show the headline print rising at 0.3% m/m and 2.7% y/y, and the core at 0.3% m/m and 2.8% y/y. Goods prices are seen rebounding and services inflation is expected to stay solid. But some softness in shelter should offset this.

Wednesday, 14 January 2026

-US Retail Sales: Consensus expects the November headline and control group to rise 0.4%. The ‘k-shaped’ economy is still playing out as the top 20% of households by income continue to spend strongly, boosted by incomes and soaring wealth, while the bottom 60% struggle on concern about job security and potential tariff-induced price hikes.

Thursday,15 January 2026

-UK GDP: The November monthly comes on the back of soft October data which printed negative. The BoE predicts zero growth, though the economy was impacted by the November Budget which caused elevated confidence and policy uncertainty, with investment decisions put off. Seasonality has also been evident in GDP data over the last few years, with much stronger activity in the first half of the year than the second.

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