US Earnings Season Watch: Netflix and TSMC Line Up for Market-Moving Moments

As earnings season heats up, two tech heavyweights—Netflix and TSMC are setting the stage for critical inflection points. From AI-fueled chip demand to the ever-volatile Netflix earnings trade, here’s what to watch this week.

Netflix: Another Post-Earnings Surge?

Netflix has consistently been one of the first major tech names to report, often setting the tone for sentiment across big tech. Its track record speaks for itself: the company has beaten expectations in the past four quarters, with shares rallying post-results in three of them.

Key Metrics to Watch:

• Revenue: Expected to grow 15.4% YoY to over $11 billion
• Operating Margin: Forecast to hit a record 33.3%
• FX Tailwind: A weaker USD supports revenue upside, as Netflix’s +50% sales from outside the U.S.

The setup heading into earnings is compelling. Despite an 8% pullback from its all-time high at $1,325, the technical structure remains bullish. The stock continues to trade above both the 50- and 200-day moving averages—a sign that dip buyers are still in play.

Momentum indicators, including the KDJ, show cooling enthusiasm but no bearish reversal. If earnings once again beat the tape, Netflix could repeat its prior post-earnings rally, potentially retesting the key $1,300–$1,325 resistance zone in the following two weeks.

TSMC: The AI Barometer Faces a Real Test

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.) isn’t just a chipmaker—it’s the backbone of the global semiconductor and AI supply chain. With the AI rally running hot, the spotlight is now on whether TSMC can deliver numbers strong enough to back the recent wave of hype.

Q2 Guidance:

• Revenue: $28.4B–$29.2B vs Q1’s $25.53B
• Gross Margin: 57%–59%
• Operating Margin: 47%–49%
• FX Impact: USD/NTD stability around 32.5 is supportive; further TWD strength may hurt margins

Despite its role in the AI boom, TSMC has underperformed post-earnings in the last four quarters, often due to lofty expectations and conservative guidance.

Technically, the stock has rallied 72% over the past three months, recently tagging a high near $232. It’s now consolidating below resistance, with RSI and KDJ showing overbought signals. A near-term pullback to $213–$220 (the 20-day MA zone) could be a reset before the next leg higher. A strong earnings beat, especially with bullish AI commentary, could be the catalyst for a breakout toward $240.

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