Top Markets to Watch – Mid-Week EDM

As global markets enter one of the most important weeks of the year, sentiment is turning cautious as traders balance the long stretch of rallies with anticipation for the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy decision. In the local market, the ASX 200 rose marginally at the beginning of the week, bolstered by the materials sector. Uranium stocks stole the spotlight after reports that the U.S. and UK plan to sign an agreement to fast-track nuclear power station approvals. Domestically, traders are also closely watching this week’s unemployment figures, which may reshape expectations ahead of the RBA’s September 29–30 policy meeting.

Globally, sentiment is being steered by the most anticipated FOMC meeting, where markets widely expect a 25bp rate cut. Investors will parse the Fed’s dot plot, quarterly economic projections and Powell’s press conference for signals on the future monetary policy path.

In currencies, the EUR/USD climbed to $1.18, its strongest since September 2021, buoyed by upbeat Eurozone and German sentiment data. Meanwhile, gold surged to a new record near $3,690, supported by central bank demand, resilient ETF inflows, and heightened geopolitical uncertainty, underscoring its safe-haven appeal ahead of the Fed’s verdict.

Against this backdrop, we take a closer technical look at the top three markets shaping sentiment this week: ASX 200, Gold, and EUR/USD.

ASX200 – Holding the Key Support at 8,800

The ASX 200 has staged a modest rebound, reclaiming ground above the 8,800 support zone. The index is consolidating between 8,800 and 8,905 after slipping from its recent peak at 9,029. Key short-term support rests at 8,763 and 8,669, while resistance sits at 8,905 and 9,024.

The 50-day SMA (8,798) is being tested as immediate support, while the 200-day SMA remains far below, underlining a still-intact broader uptrend. A break below 8,800 could expose 8,682, but if buyers hold this level, a retest of 9,029 remains possible.

Momentum indicators suggest a neutral-to-cautious tone, with RSI near 52 and KDJ pointing to stabilisation after recent declines. This week’s FOMC outcome will likely dictate whether the index sustains its rebound or resumes a corrective leg lower.

Gold (XAU/USD) – Fresh Record Highs, Trend Intact

Gold continues its relentless climb, pushing above $3,680 and edging toward the $3,700 psychological barrier. The metal has rallied 11% since August, underpinned by rate-cut expectations and safe-haven flows.

The technical picture remains firmly bullish: price action is holding well above the rising 20-day and 50-day SMAs ($3,416 and $3,516), while the RSI sits elevated above 70, reflecting strong momentum but also signalling overbought conditions. Immediate support is seen at $3,618, followed by $3,518, with deeper backing at $3,416. The broader uptrend from December lows remains intact, with higher highs and higher lows forming a clear ascending channel. As long as gold stays above $3,618, buyers retain control.

However, stretched momentum suggests potential consolidation before another breakout. Market focus now shifts to the Fed meeting, with a chance that a “hawkish cut” may spark a rebound in the dollar, prompting a breather in gold’s month-long rally.

EUR/USD – Testing Four-Year Resistance

The euro has broken higher, trading above 1.18 for the first time since 2021, in a move that underscores its bullish momentum. The pair pierced wedge resistance and now eyes 1.1903—the September 2021 peak—as its next major test. Immediate support lies at 1.1789, followed by 1.1693 and 1.1665. Price remains above both the 20-day and 50-day SMAs (1.166 and 1.169), reinforcing the bullish structure.

Momentum readings are stretched, with KDJ above 80 and RSI trending into overbought territory, suggesting consolidation risk in the near term. Still, the breakout pattern favors further upside, provided the pair holds above 1.1780. A decisive close above 1.1900 would confirm a structural shift higher, potentially opening the door toward 1.20. Short-term direction will hinge on the Fed’s tone this week, with dovish signals likely to propel further euro strength.

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