RBA Meeting Preview: a no-surprise hold could come with different shades

The Reserve Bank of Australia board is set to announce the rate decision at 2:30pm AEST on Tuesday, September 30. Governor Michele Bullock will follow with a 3:30pm press conference to explain the reasoning.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to keep rates unchanged this week, but the real story lies in the nuance of its message. Even a ‘no-surprise’ hold can carry different shades of meaning, as markets stand ready to closely decode how policymakers frame the recent flare-up in inflation and signs of slowing job growth.

RBA’s delicate game ahead

Heading into Tuesday’s meeting, markets are pricing just a 4% chance of a rate cut — down significantly from early September. In other words, a hold looks almost certain given the latest economic data and the Bank’s recent rhetoric.

Source: ASX

As Governor Bullock stressed in her September 22 Opening Statement to the House of Representatives Standing Committee: “While inflation has fallen substantially and the RBA has already lowered the cash rate by 75 basis points since the start of the year, the focus is on making sure inflation stays within the target range in a sustainable way — not just for now, but for the long term.”

That line underscores why the RBA is in no rush to ease further. Moreover, recent data simply isn’t strong enough to give policymakers the confidence for imminent action.

Australia’s monthly CPI rose 3.0% y/y in August, up from 2.8% in July and above expectations of 2.9%. While still within the 2–3% target band, this was the hottest print since July 2024. The rise was driven mainly by housing costs (up 4.5%), raising particular concerns that additional cuts could reignite a property boom.

And that’s not the only risk.

Unemployment remains low, but employment slipped by 5,400 in August, reversing July’s 26,500 gain and missing expectations of a 22,000 increase. Whether this proves a turning point or a one-off remains to be seen. Still, paired with the RBA’s warning that “the economic outlook continues to be clouded by uncertainty”, the Bank has every reason to wait for more evidence before acting again.

The next RBA meeting falls on November 3–4. By then, policymakers will have fresh jobs data (October 16) and, most crucially, the Q3 CPI (October 29). Unless those releases deliver an unpleasant surprise, another cut taking the cash rate to 3.35% could become the more plausible option for cautious policymakers.

Source: ASX

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

AUD/USD is poised to be the headline pair this week, with multiple catalysts lining up: the RBA decision, looming U.S. government shutdown risk midweek, and Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls. Together, these events could set the stage for the next major swing for the pair.

From a technical lens, both daily and weekly charts highlight fading momentum. On the weekly timeframe, the Aussie has rallied since April but is now pressing against the 50-day moving average near 0.65 — also the base of its moving tunnel. A dovish RBA could trigger a break lower, exposing 0.6449, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.

On the daily view, a new descending channel has taken shape, with August’s uptrend already broken. Momentum indicators, including KDJ and RSI, show a death cross, reinforcing the weakening bias. That also puts 0.6510 as the first key level to watch after the RBA. If it gives way, markets could swiftly shift focus toward 0.6449.

AUD/USD Weekly Chart

AUD/USD Daily Chart

In short, while Tuesday’s decision is unlikely to surprise, the tone of the RBA’s message could set the stage for both market sentiment and the Aussie dollar’s next big move.

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