Gold Eyes $4,000 While JPY Tumbles to Ten-Month Low

Preview: Gold, Bitcoin and USD/JPY Technical Outlook

Global markets kicked off the week on a cautious note as both Australian and U.S. equities edged lower, with investors caught between the drag of a deepening U.S. government shutdown and optimism over AI-driven growth. Meanwhile, gold’s unstoppable march toward $4,000 an ounce underscored the rush into safety amid mounting political and fiscal uncertainty.

With key U.S. economic releases frozen by the shutdown, traders turned to the Fed’s latest remarks for direction — and the message was clear: rate cuts remain on the table. Yet the extended closure, now in its second week, continues to cloud the data outlook and muddy the policy path ahead.

Across the Pacific, Japan’s political shake-up sent fresh ripples through forex markets as the yen tumbled to its weakest level since February, with USD/JPY breaking above the 151 handle. The victory of Sanae Takaichi, Japan’s new Liberal Democratic Party leader and a long-time advocate of easy policy and fiscal stimulus, reinforced expectations of a prolonged dovish stance — adding fresh pressure on the Yen.

This week, we take a closer look at the technical setups shaping gold, Bitcoin, and USD/JPY.

Gold (XAU/USD): Eyes on $4,000 Resistance Amid Robust Buying Momentum

Gold extended its record-setting rally into an eighth consecutive week, with prices now hovering just below the $4,000 mark — a new milestone for the yellow metal. The uptrend remains firmly intact within an ascending channel, while RSI above 80 signals stretched yet energetic momentum. The breakout above $3,965 confirms the continuation of the bullish trend, with resistance seen at $4,035 and $4,100, and support at $3,870 and the 20-week SMA near $3,455. Rising volume points to strong accumulation, though a brief consolidation around $3,980 appears likely before the next move higher.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD): Consolidating Above $120K Within Broad Uptrend

Bitcoin is consolidating near $121,900 after testing resistance at $123,300. The broader structure shows an ascending wedge, with price holding above the 50-day SMA around $114,300. RSI at 62 suggests moderate strength, while momentum indicators remain constructive. Support levels are seen at $120,000 and $117,900, with deeper support at $114,000. A decisive break above $123,500 could trigger a new leg higher toward $126,000, while failure to hold $120,000 would invite a pullback toward $118K. Overall trend bias remains bullish above $117K.

USD/JPY: Hits Highest Level Since February

USD/JPY is holding above 151 level on Tuesday, close to an eight-month high, as the yen weakens on expectations of prolonged policy divergence. The pair remains within a rising channel, resistance stands at 152.20 and 154.50 — potential intervention zones — while support rests at 150.00 and 148.90. RSI near 68 reflects stretched momentum with early reversal signs. Unless the BOJ signals a firmer tightening stance, USD/JPY looks set to keep testing the top of its range with an upward bias.

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