Australia GDP Growth Slows to 0.3% in Q1, Oil Climbs Toward $95 While Gold and Bitcoin Tumble

Global markets enter June with a resurgence in energy prices and macro uncertainty front of mind for investors.

Australia’s economy expanded by just 0.3% in the March quarter, slowing from the previous quarter and missing consensus expectations of 0.5%. The soft print reinforced concerns that higher interest rates are continuing to weigh on household spending and business activity. While inflation pressures have eased modestly, growth remains sluggish, leaving the RBA facing a delicate balancing act between controlling inflation and avoiding a deeper economic slowdown.

Meanwhile, Wall Street continued to push into record territory, with the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq all holding near fresh highs, driven by continued AI infrastructure momentum. Nvidia led the advance after unveiling a new processor for personal computers, with Dell and HP following sharply higher — underscoring that the AI trade remains the dominant market force despite macro headwinds.

WTI crude surged more than 5.5% in the new week to trade above $90 per barrel on Wednesday.  Despite a sharp 9% decline through May, oil has rebounded strongly at the start of June, with the Iran negotiation backdrop keeping a persistent risk premium embedded in energy markets.

Gold and Bitcoin have both come under pressure as stronger oil prices, firmer yields and a stronger US dollar revive the higher-for-longer rates narrative. Spot gold has slipped toward the mid-$4,400 zone, while Bitcoin has fallen below $70,000 to its lowest level since April, highlighting a broader rotation away from non-yielding and speculative assets.

For the days ahead, investors will closely watch Friday’s US Non-Farm Payrolls, further developments in US-Iran negotiations, and the inflation implications of oil’s latest leg higher.

ASX 200 – Recovery Attempt Faces Key Resistance

The ASX 200 continues to trade within a broad consolidation pattern after recovering from its May lows. The index is currently holding above key support near 8,666 while attempting to break higher through a cluster of moving-average resistance.

Technically, the market has formed a rising channel over recent weeks, suggesting buyers are gradually returning. However, the index remains below both the major downtrend line and the 200-day moving average near 8,790, leaving the broader recovery incomplete.

A break above 8,790 would strengthen the bullish case and open the door toward 8,886 and potentially 9,013. On the downside, initial support sits near 8,666, followed by stronger support around 8,415.

Momentum indicators are improving. RSI has climbed back above 50 while KDJ remains in positive territory, suggesting buyers retain short-term control. However, confirmation of a stronger uptrend will likely require a decisive break above resistance.

AUD/USD – Trend Support Holds as Bulls Eye Breakout

AUD/USD remains in a constructive technical position despite recent consolidation. The pair continues to respect an ascending trendline from the April lows while holding above the important 0.7090 support zone.

The Australian dollar is attempting to challenge a major resistance band between 0.7180 and 0.7200, which has capped rallies since late May. A successful break above this zone would signal a broader upside breakout and potentially open the path toward 0.7272.

For now, the softer Australian GDP data may limit upside momentum, while US labour market strength continues to support the US dollar. This leaves the currency pair at an important technical crossroads.

RSI remains neutral but stable above 50, while KDJ continues to point higher, suggesting bullish momentum is gradually rebuilding.

Bitcoin – Technical Breakdown Raises Risk of Deeper Pullback

Bitcoin has suffered a significant pullback in its technical outlook after breaking below both its rising trendline support and the key 74,920 support zone.

The top coin has fallen sharply toward 65,900, placing it back near levels last seen in April. The breakdown confirms a bearish triangle pattern and suggests downside momentum has accelerated.

The next major support sits near 63,810. A sustained break below this level would increase the risk of a deeper retracement toward the March lows. On the upside, Bitcoin would need to reclaim 74,800 before any meaningful recovery could be considered.

Momentum indicators remain firmly bearish. RSI has fallen close to oversold territory while KDJ continues to trend lower, suggesting sellers remain in control.

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