ASX 200 Sinks to Five-Month Lows as Risk Appetite Unravels; Wall Street Dips Ahead of Nvidia Earnings

Global markets extended their selloff this week as risk appetite deteriorated across equities, crypto and commodities. The ASX 200 slid to its lowest level since June, erasing nearly $60 billion in value on Tuesday alone, with all 11 sectors firmly in the red. The RBA’s latest minutes struck a notably cautious tone, signalling that rate cuts will only be considered if the labour market shows material weakness — a stance that dampens expectations for near-term policy support.

On Wall Street, the risk reset deepened. The S&P 500 and Dow declined for a fourth straight session as investors unwound parts of the AI trade and reassessed stretched tech valuations ahead of Nvidia’s results.

Bitcoin added further pressure to risk-off sentiment as its decline accelerated. The token is now down nearly 30% from its 2025 peak and at risk of ending the year in negative territory. With delayed US macro data finally resuming post-shutdown, traders have shifted defensively as upcoming labour and inflation readings will determine whether the case for Fed easing remains intact.

This week, we take a closer look at Gold, Nasdaq and Bitcoin’s accelerating downside.

Gold: Holding the Line Above $3,900 but Momentum Remains Fragile

Gold has stabilised above $3,900 after last week’s retreat, but the bounce remains measured rather than decisive. The chart shows price repeatedly defending the $3,998–$4046 band — a zone supported by the 20 and 50-day moving average and a prior breakout level. This suggests sellers have cooled, but buyers remain selective after the steep run-up to record highs.

Momentum indicators reflect this reset. RSI has recovered from oversold territory and is now building a mild upward slope, signaling early attempts to rebuild confidence. Meanwhile, MACD remains below the signal line, reinforcing that gold is still working through a mid-cycle pullback rather than forming a V-shaped reversal.

For near-term direction, $4,164 is the first resistance and marks the base of the broken rising channel. A break above $4,253 would confirm a regain in upward momentum. On the downside, $3,930 remains the most critical support — losing this level opens the door toward $3,830 and potentially $3,750.

Overall, gold is shifting from correction to consolidation, with the next catalyst likely coming from US data and Fed expectations.

Nasdaq 100: Trend Break Signals a Deeper Cooling in Tech

The Nasdaq has broken below its short-term ascending trend line, marking a clear loss of upward momentum after months of AI-driven strength. The index now trades within a newly formed descending channel, reflecting sustained pressure on valuation-heavy tech names ahead of Nvidia’s earnings.

Technical signals have weakened decisively. Price sits just above the 50-day moving average, RSI has slipped into the low-40s, and MACD continues to turn lower — all consistent with a rotation out of mega-caps and into more defensive pockets of the market.

Initial support sits at 24,000. A break below this level exposes 23,057 and 200-Day SMA (22,321). Resistance remains at 25,390; reclaiming this area would relieve short-term pressure, though it would not yet confirm a bullish reversal.

In short, the Nasdaq is cooling rather than collapsing — but further softness remains likely if Nvidia disappoints or US inflation surprises on the upside.

Bitcoin: Down Nearly 30% and at Risk of Ending the Year in the Red

Bitcoin’s decline has intensified, with the token now down almost 30% from its 2025 high — firmly in correction territory. Price action has broken below both the 200-day moving average and the long-term trend line from September 2024, signalling a meaningful shift in the broader structure of the market.

Momentum indicators confirm the weakness. RSI is anchored between 30–35, pointing to persistent downside pressure, while MACD remains deeply negative with widening divergence — a classic indication that selling momentum still dominates.

Key support lies at 88K, followed by 75K, both aligned with previous corrective lows. Any rebound will face heavy resistance around 100K and along the descending trend line. Until these levels are reclaimed, rallies are likely to be sold into.

Overall, Bitcoin’s trajectory reflects a broader sentiment reset driven by macro uncertainty, de-risking, and crowded long unwinds — with volatility likely to remain elevated into year-end.

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