ASX 200 Hits Four-Month Low amid Wall Street Caution Ahead of Data Wave

Last Week in a Nutshell

·       ASX 200 tumbled 1.5%, its third straight weekly loss on fading rate-cut hopes

·       U.S. government shutdown ends at 43 days, the longest on record

·       Wall Street turned volatile as delayed data clouded Fed expectations

·       Gold extended gains while oil steadied above $60 on supply-risk headlines

·       Bitcoin continued to fall below USD 95k

Australian Markets

The S&P/ASX 200 fell 1.4% to 8,634 — its sharpest decline since September — hitting a four-month low as fading rate-cut hopes following a resilient jobs report triggered broad selling. October’s unemployment rate unexpectedly slipped back to 4.3%, reinforcing expectations that the RBA will stay on hold for longer and further cooling prospects of one more cut in 2025 after earlier inflation surprises had already pushed back easing timelines.

Financials led declines as CBA’s quarterly update pointed to tighter margins and slowing mortgage growth. Miners slipped 1.6% as softer copper prices weighed on BHP and Rio Tinto, while technology names slumped 4.4% — their largest weekly drop since April — mirroring Wall Street’s tech-led retreat.

Wall Street

The 43-day U.S. government shutdown officially ended last week, marking the longest in history. Markets initially rallied on the reopening but soon turned cautious as traders confronted uncertainty from the backlog of delayed economic data. Comments from several Federal Reserve officials questioning the need for a third consecutive rate cut pushed the implied probability of a December move below 50%, down from nearly 65% earlier in the week.

The Dow eased from record highs but still ended the week up 0.3%. The S&P 500 finished broadly flat, while the Nasdaq 100 slipped 0.5%, reflecting persistent volatility in AI-linked names.

Commodities & Crypto

Gold hovered near USD 4,100/oz into the end of last week, supported by the strongest weekly gain since October’s retreat as uncertainty over delayed U.S. data and renewed central-bank buying lifted demand.

WTI crude rose 2% to above USD 60/bbl, breaking a two-week losing streak as geopolitical risks offset oversupply projections and another U.S. inventory build.

Crypto markets remained under pressure. Bitcoin dropped 5% to around USD 95k, extending a four-session slide amid risk aversion, post-liquidation deleveraging, and signs of stricter regulation in Japan.

Week Ahead

With the U.S. shutdown now resolved, attention turns to the upcoming wave of delayed data releases, alongside flash PMIs and retail sales. Nvidia’s earnings will be a major focal point for AI-related sentiment, while updates from Walmart, Target, and Home Depot will offer insight into U.S. consumer strength. In Australia, RBA meeting minutes, Q3 wage growth and monthly PMIs will be closely watched for policy cues.

Weekly Performance

*Source: TradingView*

Economic Calendar (AEST)

Monday 17/11

09:30 AM – JP: GDP Growth Rate

Tuesday 18/11

11:30 AM – AU: RBA Meeting Minutes

Wednesday 19/11

05:00 PM –UK: Inflation Rate

Thursday 20/11

05:00 AM –US: FOMC Minutes

11:15AM – CN: Loan Prime Rate

Friday 21/11

09:00 AM – AU: S&P Manufacturing & Services PMIs

09:30 AM – JP: Inflation Rate

*Source: Trading Economics

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