Week Ahead: NFP, ECB, BoC, ISMs all on tap

Things really start to spice up this week with major central bank meetings, (and rate cuts), as well as top tier economic data releases. Markets breathed a sigh of relief over the moderately cooler US inflation data released on Friday. We are into checking out decimal places on PCE data these days though, so price action has been inevitably mixed in recent weeks.

The dollar saw its run of four straight months of gains halted in May as other central banks, like the BoE and the Antipodeans, were forced to rein in their rate cut expectations on the back of sticky inflation. Attention will turn to the monthly US payrolls report on Friday which should show that labour demand and supply are in better balance. Indeed, a downside surprise could be on the cards if the data finally follows other measures of employment like the ISM labour components. Benign wage growth could also turn the odds of a Fed September rate cut, which are currently a coin flip. We also get fresh ISM survey data through the week.

The ECB will cut rates on Thursday, but then likely step away from backing a series of reductions. There’s a 60% chance of another move in September but we would bet the house on hearing “data dependent”, perhaps several times during the Lagarde press conference. Inflation has ticked up recently while growth too has bottomed out, so policymakers will want to be as flexible as possible going into the summer. The euro could break 1.09 with a very “hawkish” rate cut.

The Bank of Canada meeting is more uncertain in terms of a rate move. Consensus is split but unemployment has risen, inflation has fallen into the bank’s 1% – 3% and growth has been sluggish. If they do cut, policymakers may not want to signal that more reductions are coming, especially due to the Fed’s prolonged delay. This could help the loonie, but only in the short term as there is wide room for an eventual dovish BoC repricing. That potential underperformance could run especially true versus other commodity currencies, if US data starts to cool further out

In Brief: major data releases of the week

Monday, 3 June 2024

– US ISM Manufacturing: Expectations are for a May print of 49.7, modestly better than the prior 49.2. The index had risen in March above 50 for the first expansion in 17 months. Prices paid will be watched as they jumped to the highest since July 2022.

Wednesday, 5 June 2024

–  Australia GDP: Economists forecast Q1 growth of 0.2%, which would cause annual GDP to cool to 1.2% from 1.5%. Consumer spending has been muted while inventories are expected to bounce back from the last quarter.

–  Bank of Canada Meeting: Money markets price in above a 60% chance of a 25bp rate cut. The disinflation theme has been nicely evident with Canadian price pressures, while unemployment has risen above 6%. Relatively cautious messaging is likely, with a focus on Fed divergence.

–  US ISM Services: Expectations are for the non-manufacturing sector to rise into expansionary territory at 51.0 from 49.4 in April. That would be the first time above 50 since the March print.

Thursday, 6 June 2024

– ECB Meeting: A 25bps rate cut is widely expected. Most Governing Council members have reaffirmed this in recent weeks. Updated staff projections are forecast to show few changes to the profile. The key question will be if there is any forward guidance.

Friday, 31 May 2024,

– US Non-Farm Payrolls: Consensus expects a headline print of 180k, down from the prior 175k. The jobless rate is forecast to remain at 3.9% and average hourly earnings to tick up to 0.3%. The household survey and leading indicators point to slowing job growth momentum.

– Canada Jobs: Gains of 25,000 are expected in the monthly headline figure, with the jobless rate ticking up further to 6.2% in May. Wage growth could accelerate after a mild soft patch in April.

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