FOMC Preview: The Fed Decision That Could Move Gold, AUD/USD and Bitcoin

The Federal Reserve takes centre stage this week as investors prepare for one of the most important market events of the month.

Why This FOMC Meeting Matters

Markets largely expect the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged at its July meeting. However, the focus will likely be on the accompanying statement and the Fed press conference, where investors will be looking for any indication of whether policymakers are becoming more confident that inflation is moving sustainably towards target or whether higher interest rates may need to remain in place for longer.

Comments around inflation, labour market conditions and future policy expectations could influence financial markets well beyond the US.

Looking Back: How Did Markets React to the Previous FOMC?

The previous FOMC meeting delivered little surprise on rates, but markets reacted strongly to the Fed’s communication.

Gold initially strengthened before giving back gains.

AUD/USD experienced increased volatility as traders adjusted expectations for future US interest rates.

US equities responded positively as investors focused on the prospect of eventual policy easing.

Bitcoin also benefited from improving risk sentiment as expectations for lower rates later in the year supported demand for risk assets.

The key takeaway: Markets often react more to the Fed’s language than the interest rate decision itself.

This week, we take a look at three key charts: Gold, AUD/USD and Bitcoin.

Gold XAU/USD: Shifted into a period of consolidation ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve meeting.

Gold continues to trade within its broader long-term uptrend, although recent price action has shifted into a period of consolidation ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve meeting.

After finding support near the US$4,000 psychological level, buyers have returned to the market, pushing prices back above US$4,040. This suggests the longer-term bullish structure remains intact, but momentum has slowed as traders await fresh guidance from the Fed.

From a technical perspective, gold is currently trading between key support and resistance zones, with the outcome of this week’s macro events likely to determine its next directional move.

AUD/USD: Tests Key 0.7000 Barrier Ahead of the Fed

AUD/USD is trading around 0.6975, just below the key 0.7000 psychological resistance after Australia’s stronger-than-expected employment report boosted the Aussie dollar. Technically, the pair remains in a broader uptrend, but this week’s Federal Reserve meeting could determine its next move. A sustained break above 0.7000 may open the door towards 0.7050 and 0.7100, while a more hawkish Fed could see the pair retreat towards support at 0.6950, followed by 0.6900. With major US economic data and the FOMC decision ahead, AUD/USD is likely to remain one of the most closely watched currency pairs this week.

Bitcoin Holds Key Support as Markets Await the Fed

Bitcoin is trading around US$65,366, continuing to consolidate near its recent highs as investors await this week’s Federal Reserve decision. From a technical perspective, the broader bullish trend remains intact while price holds above the US$64,000 support zone. A sustained move above US$66,000 could see buyers target the US$68,000 resistance, while a breakout beyond that level may bring the record highs back into focus. On the downside, a break below US$64,000 could expose support around US$62,000. Alongside the Fed, traders are also monitoring regulatory developments, including the CLARITY Act, as a potential longer-term catalyst for the digital asset sector.

Support: US$64,000 | US$62,000
Resistance: US$66,000 | US$68,000

What to Watch This Week

• Federal Reserve rate decision

• Fed press conference

• Microsoft earnings

• Meta earnings

• Apple earnings

• Amazon earnings

• US Q2 GDP

• US PCE Inflation

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