ASX Rallies on Middle East De-escalation Hopes, Oil Pulls Back Near $100

Preview: AUD/USD, Gold and Oil Technical Analysis

Australian equities are firmer at the start of April following their weakest monthly performance since 2022, supported by easing geopolitical tensions, as both the US and Iran signal a more constructive tone toward a potential resolution, although clarity remains limited.

The ASX 200 advanced 1.66% on Wednesday, with 8 of 11 sectors higher. Materials and Information Technology led gains, reflecting a rebound in global risk sentiment and renewed appetite for growth exposure.

Overnight, US markets paused after a strong rally, highlighting a shift from relief to reassessment. The shift is subtle but important — markets are no longer reacting to peak risk, but recalibrating how long that risk persists.

Oil prices reflect that tension. Crude has pulled back from recent highs above $107 but remains elevated near $100, signalling that while immediate supply fears may be easing, the market is not yet pricing a full resolution. The modest retracement suggests scepticism still dominates. This leaves markets in a familiar position — stabilising on improving headlines, but still pricing a meaningful degree of uncertainty.

This week, we focus on the following markets: AUD/USD, Brent crude and gold.

AUD/USD – Long-term Uptrend Intact, but Range Behaviour Emerging

AUD/USD continues to respect its broader recovery structure, holding above an ascending trendline that has defined price action since early 2025. However, momentum is clearly softening. The pair has repeatedly failed to sustain breaks above the 0.70–0.71 resistance zone, reinforcing a developing range rather than a trending extension.

The longer-term trendline remains supportive, but the recent pullback toward the 0.69 area suggests buyers are becoming less aggressive at higher levels. RSI has eased back toward neutral territory, signalling fading momentum rather than outright reversal.

Key support now sits near 0.6718, aligning with the ascending trendline and September 2025 peak. For traders, the market is transitioning from trend-following to range-trading behaviour. A sustained break above 0.7038 could shift attention toward the 0.71 region, while a loss of trend support would shift the structure back toward consolidation.

Brent Crude – Sharp Repricing, but Structure Still Elevated

Brent crude has rallied sharply this year, with a significant portion of gains concentrated in March. The weekly structure shows a strong impulsive move followed by early signs of consolidation, with price now stabilising near the $100–$108 zone.

Technically, the breakout above long-term resistance has reset the range higher, with former resistance now acting as support ($95). However, the recent rejection from the $114–$124 zone highlights selling pressure emerging at elevated levels. RSI remains in overbought territory, though starting to ease, signalling momentum is cooling rather than reversing. The key level to watch is $100. Holding above this zone would help preserve the current upward structure, while a break lower may bring a deeper retracement into focus.

Gold – Breakdown Shifts Market into Reassessment Phase

Gold has just recorded its worst month since 2008 after dropping more than 11% in March alone.  As a result, the bullion has transitioned from a strong uptrend into a corrective phase after failing to hold above both short- and medium-term trendlines.

Price is now attempting to stabilise around the 4,600–4,700 region, with the 200-day moving average below acting as a deeper structural support. The inability to reclaim the 4,700–5,000 zone keeps near-term pressure tilted to the downside.

RSI has recovered modestly from oversold levels but remains below neutral, suggesting the bounce lacks strong conviction for now. Price action is becoming increasingly reactive to key levels rather than trend continuation. A move back above 4,790 (38.2% Fibonacci level) would help stabilise the structure, while failure to hold current levels may bring a retest of lower support near 4,400 into focus. 

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