Week Ahead: After the shake-out NFP looms

We come into a new week after wild price action seen in recent sessions but interestingly, not because of a barrage of fresh headlines. Instead, asset classes have been driven by technical deleveraging, with the most speculative corners of the market feeling the pressure. Sharp selloffs were evident across high-beta assets which means crypto took a hit (-25% at one point on the week), parts of tech, like services, tanked, and silver saw aggressive downside during the week with Chinese positioning a big influence. This wasn’t panic driven by news but position unwinding of previously crowded trades, as we highlighted in last week’s piece.

What stopped things from turning truly disorderly was a Friday ‘buy the dip’ session as risk appetite returned, and major indices staged a strong rebound, wiping out much of the week’s losses. History was also made as the Dow Jones pushed through 50,000 for the first time. That’s really a reminder that rotation is ongoing as investors get away from Big Tech and the hyperscalers and look at more defensive sectors.

Looking ahead, this week is stacked with top tier data and more earnings, while markets will still digest the technical aftershocks from last week. The key focus will be the delayed monthly NFP jobs report alongside CPI, which could shape expectations around interest rates. Add to that retail sales and plenty of Fed speakers, including Governors Miran and Waller. On the political front, US lawmakers face a deadline to agree on Homeland Security funding, which could briefly spill into bond market volatility if talks falter.

Elsewhere, we’ll be watching political developments in Japan and the UK, especially given how sensitive bond markets have been to fiscal and political stress in recent years. PM Takaichi’s gamble to call a snap election looks likely to pay off with a big victory and expansive spending pledges. That points to big gains in domestic stocks and yen weakness, with recent highs around 159 in USD/JPY eyed. PM Starmer is in the opposite position and could face leadership challenges which would worry Gilt markets. Finally, we get more earnings and go beyond tech, with results from big consumer names like Airbnb, Coca-Cola, Hilton, and McDonald’s, that will offer valuable insight into the health of US and global spending.

In Brief: major data releases of the week

Tuesday, 10 February 2026

US Retail Sales: Consensus expects the headline to rise 0.4% versus the prior 0.6%. Sales should maintain a firm pace of growth with lower and higher income groups continuing to diverge. The latter are benefiting from wealth effects, but the former are being impacted by higher prices.

Wednesday, 11 February 2026

US Non-Farm Payrolls: Consensus expects 70k jobs to be added in January, above the prior 50k. The 3-month average is 22k. The unemployment rate is predicted to remain at 4.4%. Wage growth is seen steady at 0.3%. Other recent labour market gauges have slowed. Annual benchmark revisions will also be published. 

Thursday, 12 February 2026

UK GDP: Q4 GDP is expected at 0.1% q/q and 1.3% y/y, while December growth is forecast to rise 0.3% from 0.1%. The restart of car production at Jaguar Land Rover boosted Q4 but now means a softer December print. Solid growth momentum should carry over into 2026. 

Friday, 13 February 2026

US CPI: The delayed inflation data is forecast to show both the headline and core prints rising 0.3% m/m and 2.5% y/y. January is typically a solid seasonal up-month while shelter prices could be elevated along with core services. Evidence of tariffs remains limited so far.

Disclaimer: The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our client. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and therefore it shouldn’t be relied upon as such. Any research provided does not have regard to specific financial situations, needs or investment objectives. Vantage accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. We advise any readers of this material to seek professional advice where necessary. Without the approval of Vantage, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.