U.S. Government Shutdown Nears End, Nasdaq Retreats, Gold Stabilizes Above $4,000

Preview: Gold, Nasdaq, and Bitcoin Technical Analysis

Market Overview

The U.S. federal government shutdown — now the longest on record — is finally nearing its end after progress in Congress, easing some market anxiety. Still, sentiment remains cautious as investors await the return of key U.S. economic data, including inflation and employment reports that will shape the Federal Reserve’s next move.

Global equities started the week strong but lost steam mid-week, with the Nasdaq slipping nearly 5% from recent highs as investors rotated out of AI and tech leaders amid renewed concerns over valuations and fiscal spending.

In commodities, gold prices steadied above the $4,000 mark after last week’s sharp correction, while Bitcoin hovered near critical support levels after retreating nearly 20% from its recent record. Broader crypto sentiment remains fragile following October’s liquidity crush.

This week, we take a closer look at Gold, Nasdaq, and Bitcoin — and what their setups suggest ahead of a new chapter of market narrative after US government re-opens.

Gold: Reclaiming Solid Ground Above $4,000

Gold has regained its footing above $4,000 after last week’s steep correction. The metal bounced back from its short-term base around $3,930, supported by the 50-day moving average, while the RSI has recovered toward neutral territory, signaling cooling downside momentum.

The broader uptrend remains intact, with the 200-day moving average well below current levels, underscoring that the recent pullback was likely a consolidation phase rather than a reversal. Immediate resistance is seen near $4,172, followed by the record $4,400. A sustained break above $4,100–$4,150 could re-ignite bullish momentum, while support sits at $3,930 and $3,770.

Historically, similar retracements after major breakouts — such as post-$3,000 last year — have preceded multi-month consolidation before the next leg higher, suggesting gold may be entering a renewed accumulation phase.

Nasdaq 100: Valuation Jitters After a Record Run

The Nasdaq has entered a mild corrective phase, slipping from its recent peak near 26,300 toward 25,500, as stretched valuations and renewed fiscal worries trigger a rotation out of mega-cap tech. The index remains supported by the rising trendline from April and the 50-day moving average around 25,200, which serves as an immediate pivot zone.

Momentum indicators have softened — the RSI has cooled to around 55, reflecting moderation rather than panic selling. A sustained move below 25,200 could open the door to 24,000, while resistance now sits at 25,750 and 26,300.

Despite near-term fatigue, the longer-term structure remains constructive, with corporate earnings and easing rate expectations likely to re-anchor sentiment once macro uncertainty subsides.

Bitcoin: Testing Long-term Support

Bitcoin continues to hover just above $100,000 after a volatile two-week sell-off that erased over 20 % from October’s peak near $126,000. The price is consolidating within the $100,000–$101,000 zone — close to both the Fib 0.5 retracement and long-term trendline support dating back to September 2024.

Technical momentum remains cautious: the RSI is still subdued around 42, and prices remain below key moving averages ($111,000–$114,000), suggesting that near-term rallies may face resistance. If Bitcoin can hold above $100,000, a rebound toward $106,000–$111,000 is possible. Failure to do so could expose the next floor near $95,000, and below that, $88,000.

This setup closely mirrors the consolidation seen earlier this year after a 28 % pullback, implying that the market is resetting before its next major move.

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