Week Ahead: Eyeing Up a Year-end Stock Melt-up

Markets head into November fairly buoyant with stock market dips being bought in anticipation of a year-end (Santa Claus) rally. Earnings have been resilient with nearly 87% of S&P 500 companies having beaten expectations, which is one of the strongest showings in years. Bulls now have seasonality on their side too, as November and December have historically been strong months for equities, especially when the S&P 500 is up 15% or more heading into the end of the year.

Defensives, led by consumer staples, are underperforming cyclicals, but that is also as expected in the current macroeconomic backdrop. Interestingly, sentiment still remains sceptical, with surveys continuing to show more bears than bulls. This likely points to FOMO by those fund managers who need to make up performance and have been underweight equities as they have previously favoured the ‘wall of worry’ side of the argument rather than embracing the AI investment boom, which has powered market returns. That said, recent Big Tech earnings prove that investors are getting more alert to overspending on AI (see Meta’s plunge) versus huge capex effectively fuelling growth (see Alphabet’s surge).  

US President Trump’s 12 out of 10 rating of his meeting with President XI has appeased market trade worries for now. Most headlines matched chatter in the run-up, with no roadblock on rare earths, but little discussion on chips and the postponement of US shipbuilding probes. The main question is whether the hawkish Fed rate cut, mixed earnings reaction to big tech and expectations-matching Trump-Xi Summit will slow the risk rally into the strong seasonal part of the year. The US government shutdown will be the longest if it goes past November 5, with both policymakers and investors hoping for a reopen and then the release of the crucial US monthly non-farm payrolls report. This is generally published on the first day of Friday and could show doge cuts and a negative headline number.

In Brief: Major Data Releases of the Week 

Monday, 03 November 2025

US ISM Manufacturing: Consensus expects a reading of 49.2, more or less unchanged from the September print. The S&P Global data was similarly steady with employment softer, highlighting that weakness in manufacturing is likely to continue.  

Tuesday, 04 November 2025

RBA Meeting: Money markets predict the bank will sit on its hands and keep the Cash Rate at 3.6%. Recent hotter than expected inflation reined in rate cut bets, although jobs data has been weaker than anticipated. Policy remains somewhat restrictive. 

Wednesday, 05 November 2025

US ADP: Around 25k jobs are expected to be added. This is the monthly private payrolls data, which assumes greater significance as markets are yet to see the delayed September (and October) NFP reports. ADP will also release weekly updates on Tuesdays.    

US ISM Services: Expectations are for a rise to 51.0 for October non-manufacturing from the prior 50.0. S&P Global saw the second fastest growth in business activity this year, while jobs growth picked up too.

Thursday, 06 November 2025

The Bank of England Meeting: The MPC is predicted to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 4%, with around a 30% chance of a 25bps rate cut. The vote is likely to be split 6-3 in favour of keeping rates on hold. Recent inflation data printed softer than expected, but policymakers may want to see the November budget before acting. GBP/USD is clinging to support at 1.3140 after breaking down last week. 

Friday, 07 November 2025

Canada Jobs: Trade tensions have hit economic activity with the BoC recently noting that the labour market remains soft. September saw impressive headline job gains but they came after two sizable down months, in what is a volatile data release.

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