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Weekly outlook | Election results point the way, stock markets uncertain

Vantage Updated Updated Tue, 2024 July 2 01:50

Important events this week:

Election results from the eurozone are likely to have an impact on the markets this week. After a disastrous TV debate in the US, financial markets in Europe could react volatile to election results from France and the UK. As the volatility is currently very low (keyword: volatility index in the S&P 500 – VIX), things could get exciting. On Friday, the NFP labor data could possibly trigger further movements in the Dollar.

– EU CPI – The core CPI rate is expected to be slightly lower than in the previous period at 2.8%. This could put the EUR under pressure. In general, it is worth taking a look at the EURUSD pair. It has traded in a sideways zone and could soon leave this area.

The weekly chart shows that the broad support at 1.0600 could unleash further downward pressure if broken. The election result in France could increase the momentum, followed by a  weaker consumer price index. The data will be released on Tuesday 02 July at 11:00CET.

– US ADP Employment Change – Employment data appears to be cooling slightly in the US. An employment change of 156,000 new jobs is expected. If this data is better, then this could lead to further potential for the Dollar. In this context, the Dollar Index (USDX) indicates a possible further positive trend.

The weekly chart above shows further upward potential. A break of the 106.00 zone could release further momentum. However, a correction might occur, especially during the beginning of the new trading month. The index serves as a good indicator for the development of the Greenback, whereby the NFP data on Friday could provide further clarity. The figure will be published on Wednesday 03 July at 14:15CET.

– UK General Election – The elections could cause further movement, especially in GBP. According to the polls, the Labour Party could win. Leader Keir Starmer could then be appointed as the new Prime Minister by King Charles on 5 July. This would mark the return of the People’s Party after 14 years in opposition.

The pound remains under pressure, particularly against the Dollar. Prices could fall further. In particular, a break of the 50- moving average could result in further downside potential. The elections will take place on Thursday 04 July.

– US NFP data – The Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to show 189,000 new jobs created this month. The last few releases have generally shown a better result, which has led to further strength in the Dollar. This might also be the case this month. However, a weaker result could lead to a setback in the USD. The figure will be published on Friday 5 July at 14:30CET.