Important Information

You are visiting the international Vantage Markets website, distinct from the website operated by Vantage Global Prime LLP
( ) which is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority ("FCA").

This website is managed by Vantage Markets' international entities, and it's important to emphasise that they are not subject to regulation by the FCA in the UK. Therefore, you must understand that you will not have the FCA’s protection when investing through this website – for example:

  • You will not be guaranteed Negative Balance Protection
  • You will not be protected by FCA’s leverage restrictions
  • You will not have the right to settle disputes via the Financial Ombudsman Service (FOS)
  • You will not be protected by Financial Services Compensation Scheme (FSCS)
  • Any monies deposited will not be afforded the protection required under the FCA Client Assets Sourcebook. The level of protection for your funds will be determined by the regulations of the relevant local regulator.

If you would like to proceed and visit this website, you acknowledge and confirm the following:

  • 1.The website is owned by Vantage Markets' international entities and not by Vantage Global Prime LLP, which is regulated by the FCA.
  • 2.Vantage Global Limited, or any of the Vantage Markets international entities, are neither based in the UK nor licensed by the FCA.
  • 3.You are accessing the website at your own initiative and have not been solicited by Vantage Global Limited in any way.
  • 4.Investing through this website does not grant you the protections provided by the FCA.
  • 5.Should you choose to invest through this website or with any of the international Vantage Markets entities, you will be subject to the rules and regulations of the relevant international regulatory authorities, not the FCA.

Vantage wants to make it clear that we are duly licensed and authorised to offer the services and financial derivative products listed on our website. Individuals accessing this website and registering a trading account do so entirely of their own volition and without prior solicitation.

By confirming your decision to proceed with entering the website, you hereby affirm that this decision was solely initiated by you, and no solicitation has been made by any Vantage entity.

I confirm my intention to proceed and enter this website Please direct me to the website operated by Vantage Global Prime LLP, regulated by the FCA in the United Kingdom

By providing your email and proceeding to create an account on this website, you acknowledge that you will be opening an account with Vantage Global Limited, regulated by the Vanuatu Financial Services Commission (VFSC), and not the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA).

    Please tick all to proceed

  • Please tick the checkbox to proceed
  • Please tick the checkbox to proceed
Proceed Please direct me to website operated by Vantage Global Prime LLP, regulated by the FCA in the United Kingdom.


Are you long or short on indices?

Trade Indices Now >
Long Or Short On Indices?


View More
  • All
  • Search
  • Forex Trading
  • Vantage Rewards
  • Spreads
  • facebook
  • instagram
  • twitter
  • linkedin
  • youtube

USD gains in quiet trade, Gold shines

Vantage Updated Updated Mon, 2024 January 15 10:14


* China steps up Taiwan isolation after weekend election

* Fed tiptoes toward dialling back key channel of monetary tightening

* Safe haven gold gains on renewed Fed rate cut bets

* Bank of Canada survey shows inflation expectations are coming down

FX: USD found a mild bid butwas rangebound again. The broader trading range on NFP day on January 5 still holds. It was a holiday in the US, so volumes were light. Market have seen modestly hotter than expected major data (NFP, CPI) but March rate cut odds remain currently above 70%. Fedspeak has also pointed to this pricing being optimistic, yet it remains steadfast for now.

EUR printed a doji denoting the light liquidity. A technical recession was avoided in Germany as Q4 GDP data fell 0.3% q/q. But the prior three months were revised one-tenth higher to flat from -0.1%. The midpoint of the December rally sits at 1.0931.

GBP was the second best performing major after the euro in holiday trade. The pound is currently sat roughly in the middle of the 1.26-1.2828 range. It’s the middle of the month which means a UK data dump. Wage growth is key tomorrow, CPI on Wednesday and retail sales comes out on Friday.

USD/JPY rose as the yen underperformed its major peers. The halfway point of the November decline is at 146.07 with the 50-day SMA at 146.17. Japan CPI is released on Friday and expected to soften further in line with the Tokyo data from last week.

AUD fell for a third day in a row. Prices are close to the NFP spike low at 0.6640. A major Fib level of the October rally sits at 0.6641 to reinforce this area of support. Focus will turn to this week’s jobs data on Thursday. High beta FX were the worst major performers on weak risk sentiment.

Stocks: US equities were closed for Martin Luther King Day. Earnings pick up this week with 23 companies listed on the benchmark S&P 500 releasing their Q4 results. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley arrive at the same time today before the US open. It’s been a lacklustre start by the banks so far with a combination of both disappointing earnings and for some, weaker than forecast guidance.

Asian futures are in mixed. APAC stocks were rangebound with few major drivers and the extended US weekend. The Nikkei 225 briefly hit 36,000 for the first time since 1990.

Gold climbed for a third straight day as the risk mood was muted. Brent crude traded lower before retracing all its losses, though it remains below $80.

Day Ahead Data Focus UK Jobs

A bunch of UK data kicks off with the employment numbers for December. The jobless rate is seen steady at 4.2% but focus will be on earnings growth. Both measures are predicted to fall to 6.7%, which is encouraging for the BoE. Pay growth is finally turning lower and losing momentum. More of this disinflation is needed to help suppress high services inflation. We get that reading on Wednesday and these are two key metrics for the MPC.

Chart of the Day USD/CAD rebound continues

The latest Canada CPI figures are released later today. November saw an unchanged print at 3.1% y/y. This is a higher than the 2.8% figure recorded back in June, signalling a stalling of the progress in getting inflation back down to the Bank of Canada’s 2% target midpoint. That said, underlying measures of inflation have continued to decline, so any further drop in the core figures could offset an unexpectedly hot headline number.

The loonie could recoup some of its year-to-date losses against the greenback if CPI heads in the wrong direction again. But for the major to be able to resume its medium-term downtrend, much will depend on how Fed expectation, risk sentiment and oil prices evolve in the coming weeks. Resistance above sits at 1.3453 and 1.3479.