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日央行即將大換血,日元或多重受益

Vantage 更新 Updated Fri, 2023 March 31 02:36
日央行即將大換血,日元或多重受益

記得去年我們對美元兌日元的走勢一直看多。但今年美日的走勢可能會發生一定的變化。臨近4月,日本央行現任行長黑田東彥即將卸任。日本央行領導層正經歷一次“大換血”,市場猜測其政策可能會隨之發生變化。日本央行新任副行長內田真一近期表示,如果必要的話,或將調整央行YCC政策,但調整的方式可能會出人意料。不過,他也在議會回答問題時說,將不會提前釋放任何關于央行政策決定的信號,包括圍繞YCC的調整,因為這將最終由日本政策委員會會議決定的。

同時,日央行新的掌舵人植田和男將于今年4月9日接任,現任行長黑田在其任職期間一貫“不走尋常路”。在去年12月20日,黑田就宣布將日本10年期國債收益率上限從此前的0.25%上調至0.5%,令全球金融市場都感到震驚,美日也一度大跌近300點。盡管植田承諾會謹慎溝通,但他的行事風格可能也會讓市場措手不及。即便日央行暫時不加息,但如果它再次調整國債收益率上限,日元仍會在短線呈現較大波動,甚至可能牽動美元兌日元中線的走勢。

另一層利好日元的因素來自于市場情緒的轉變。日元此前長期以來的走軟,基本都是由美聯儲與日央行兩者政策的巨大差異,導致日元和美元利差擴大。3月開始,美國和歐洲的幾家銀行連續爆雷,瑞信銀行3月15日自爆財務缺陷和大股東“撒手不管”,觸發了瑞信股價的暴跌。美元兌瑞郎也創下了2015年瑞郎黑天鵝事件以來最大的漲幅。盡管瑞郎後期收複了部分失地,但瑞士投資者卻遭受了打擊。日元也因此因禍得福,重新成為市場避險工具的香饽饽。道富環球投資與安聯全球投資旗下的一支基金都開始進行日元防禦性的交易。在期權市場,根據衡量日元預期走向的風險逆轉指數,三個月期限的交易員增加了對日元的多頭押注,達到2020年以來的最高水平。

今年美元兌日元的走勢未必會出現大型單邊空頭走勢,但曲折下行的趨勢仍有可能在未來繼續呈現。127仍為美日周線級別的關鍵支撐,如果徹底失守,美日有可能進一步滑向120-122一帶。

2023年03月31日 許曦揚

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