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債務談判進展緩慢,美股會否陷入危機?

Vantage 更新 Updated Fri, 2023 May 26 03:02
債務談判進展緩慢,美股會否陷入危機?

距離美國政府債務可能違約還有兩周不到的時間,美國總統拜登和衆議院議長麥卡錫于周一晚間結束討論,仍沒有就提高美國政府31.4萬億美元的債務上限達成協議。在所謂的X日到來之前,另一層擔憂開始湧現——美股可能會出現抛售浪潮。

時間退回到美國政府最近的一次債務違約——2011年,當時兩黨在債務上限和削減預算赤字問題上遲遲未能形成共識,導致國際評級機構標普將該國長期主權信用評級由“AAA”降至“AA+”,評級展望為負面,為美國曆史上首次喪失3A主權信用評級。美股隨之遭遇劇烈抛售,標普500指數在7月下旬到8月初的短短3周之內暴跌20%。

值得注意的是,2011年美國經濟整體處于下滑態勢。失業率居高不下,消費者信心低迷,美國的個人實際消費支出增長大約從金融危機前的3%下降到2%以下。制造業和非制造業PMI均有所回落。盡管美股各指數走勢差異不大,但行業分化較為明顯:公用事業、房地産和非耐消板塊表現出防禦性,經濟敏感的金融板塊表現較差。

美國曆次債務上限危機期間美股表現

相比之下,2013年的債務上限危機對股市影響整體有限。三大股指分別在5月《無支付,無預算》法案到期和10月份財政部預計“違約日”臨近時出現了兩次大幅回調,但5月回調與美聯儲削減量化寬松有關。此外,2013年美國經濟整體趨好,年內整體保持上漲,其中納斯達克表現最好。

2018年12月22日,美國政府開始了曆史上最長的一次停擺,時長35天。美股的回調自當年9月即開始,主要由貨幣政策預期收緊導致,因此納斯達克回調幅度最大。行業方面,仍然是防禦性的房地産和公用事業相對抗跌。

2011年美國債務危機期間,VIX恐慌指數也曾大幅飙升,2011年7月23日-8月10日美國債務危機爆發期間,VIX一度升至50左右。盡管目前VIX指數和美國股指表現都相對淡定,市場對于美國政府債務危機妥善解決依然抱有較為樂觀的看法,但仍需對此保持謹慎警惕的立場。曆史數據顯示,當債務上限剛觸及時,對市場的影響往往不明顯,而在最後時刻到來的前1個月影響最顯著。因此在臨近X日之期,美股會否出現明顯回落或者加大波動,仍是一個未知數。

2011年美國債務危機期間VIX指數飙升至50左右

2023年05月26日 許曦揚

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