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“聖誕老人行情”提早來襲?

目錄

“聖誕老人行情”提早來襲?

“聖誕老人行情”提早來襲?

Vantage By Kong Seng Kit Updated Updated Tue, 2022 December 6 03:48

“聖誕老人行情”經常被用來描述每年12月底股市的持續上漲。由于這種現象通常發生在聖誕節,即12月25日的前一周,因此以聖誕命名。然而,對此現象也有其他定義,指股市在每年的最後五個交易日和次年初的頭兩個交易日大概率表現出異常強勁的看漲趨勢。

隨著市場自2022年11月29日以來一直呈上升趨勢,許多人都在討論今年“聖誕老人行情”是否提早到來。本文將展開說說導致最近市場持續上漲的一些原因,以及”聖誕老人行情”今年是否提早發生。

了解“聖誕老人行情”

“聖誕老人行情”最早是由耶魯·赫希(Yale Hirsch)在《股票交易員年鑒》(Stock Trader ‘s Almanac)提出。歷史記錄顯示,標准普爾500指數在1950年至1971年的最後五個交易日以及次年初的頭兩個交易日,平均漲幅1.5% [1]。赫希認為,這種市場現象將成為來年股市的指標[1]

引發“聖誕老人行情”的因素

以下幾項因素或可解釋股市為何會在這七個交易日表現強勁。

  1. 交易者預期股市會在一月份反彈,即所謂的1月份效應,所以提早買入股票。

  2. 聖誕節和新年之間的節慶氛圍可能會令交易者對來年抱持樂觀情緒,從而促使他們積極買入股票。
  3.  從工作獲得的年終獎金和節日期間的禮物為交易者提供了更多可投入股市的資金。
  4. 臨近年底,機構投資者可能會在聖誕節前開始進行年終調整,並為下一年制定戰略。
  5.  越來越多交易者意識到“股市聖誕效應”並決定買入股票,期望股市未來幾周內的上升行情中獲利。

上述內容都只是可能引發“聖誕老人行情”的潛在因素,提醒交易者在進行交易之前還是必須謹慎做好調研。

2022年11月最後一周的股市反彈

11月最後一周,標准普爾500指數上漲122.48點或3.09%,報4080.11點。道瓊斯工業平均指數大幅上漲737.24點或2.18%,收盤價是34,589.77點 [2]。市場在最後一個交易日以上漲走勢結束了大幅震蕩的11月。交易者開始將股市這波漲勢與“聖誕效應”聯系起來,認為本年度的“聖誕老人效應”已經提早開啓。

股市反彈的原因

以下是11月底股市出現反彈的幾個潛在因素。

1. 鮑威爾暗示美聯儲將放緩加息

美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾在布魯金斯學會的一次發言中暗示美聯儲將在12月放緩加息。他的言論表明美聯儲可能會在下一次聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)會議上只加息50個基點[3],而不是市場預期的75個基點 [3]。這是美聯儲全年積極加息步伐的放緩。對于交易者和投資者來說,這無疑是個好消息。如果利率繼續快速上升,將減緩經濟增長,並可能減低消費者支出。

2. 黑五網一的銷售表現

根據 Adobe Analytics 的數據,消費者在黑五網一的五天假期購物促銷中花費了約354億美元。僅網絡星期一當天,銷售額達到創紀錄的113億美元,對比去年增長了5.3%;黑色星期五的銷售額則為91.2億美元,比往年增長2.3% [4]。消費者的需求推動了購物節銷售額的上升,而這有助于零售股反彈並走高,帶領11月股市走出一波上漲行情。

結論

11月結束前的股市走高似乎預示著“聖誕老人行情”已經提前開始,為市場帶來潛在的獲利(與虧損)機會。投資者與交易者可在 Vantage 平台迎接今年的“股市聖誕效應”,掌握市場走高可能出現的獲利良機。

今天就以低點差和快速穩定的執行速度交易標准普爾500指數、道瓊斯工業平均指數等全球最大股市指數。Vantage 還提供股票差價合約的投資選項,讓交易者有機會從全球數一數二公司的股價波動中掌握獲利機會。

在 Vantage 開設真實賬戶即可開始以差價合約交易美國股票,過程只需不到5分鍾!所有 Vantage 客戶在交易美股差價合約時均可享受零傭金的優惠,讓你的投資獲得最大價值。同時間更好地利用多頭或多空方向的價格變動,從金融市場獲利!

此文章僅為方便起見而翻譯, 如有任何歧義,請以本文章的英文版本為准。本文章英文版本請參見: https://www.vantagemarkets.com/en/academy/santa-claus-rally/

參考資料

  1. “Santa Claus Rally – The Motley Fool”. https://www.fool.com/investing/stock-market/basics/santa-claus-rally/. Accessed 1 Dec 2022 .
  2. “Stocks rally, yields and dollar fall as Powell signals slower hikes – Reuters”. https://www.reuters.com/markets/global-markets-wrapup-1-2022-11-30/. Accessed 1 Dec 2022.
  3. “The Heard on the Street Recap: The Powell Factor – The Wall Street Journal”. https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-11-30-2022/card/the-heard-on-the-street-recap-the-powell-factor-WsbfbjY3zQDP6tequ5eS. Accessed 2 Dec 2022.
  4. “Holiday shopping sets records on paper, but inflation takes its toll – The Washington Post”. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/11/29/shoppers-broke-records-this-holiday-weekend-inflation-took-its-toll/. Accessed 2 Dec 2022.
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