FOMC Decision: A Potential Dovish Shift and Its Impact on EUR/USD
Updated Updated Fri, 2025 April 11 07:29
The upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision could be a pivotal moment for financial markets, particularly for EUR/USD traders. With speculation mounting about the Federal Reserve’s stance on future rate cuts, a dovish shift relative to current market pricing may influence the US dollar against the Euro.
FOMC Decision: A Potential Dovish Surprise?
Over the past week, market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have shifted considerably, with traders dialling back their bets on aggressive easing. However, if the FOMC signals a more dovish approach than what is currently priced in—such as acknowledging economic risks or hinting at rate cuts sooner than expected—the US dollar could weaken.
While the Fed’s inflation forecasts may rise due to looming import tariffs, this could be counterbalanced by a downward revision in the 2025 GDP growth forecast and a potential increase in unemployment expectations. The Fed operates under a dual mandate—balancing full employment with price stability—which means it may lean towards a more dovish approach if adjustments are made to its rate guidance.
Potential Market Impact
- A More Dovish Fed? If the Fed signals an easing bias, it could surprise markets and drive a knee-jerk weakening of the U.S. dollar.
- Labour Market Considerations – The Fed has historically prioritized protecting employment gains, reacting quickly to signs of weakness. Given the February jobs report showed only modest strength, this could add further downside risks for the dollar.
- Market Pricing & Expectations – With traders recently scaling back their bets on rate cuts, a dovish signal from the Fed could catch many off guard, increasing volatility.
EUR/USD: A Major Beneficiary?
Any deviation from the Fed’s previous stance will likely have a significant impact on the U.S. dollar’s performance, particularly against the euro. If the FOMC delivers a more dovish-than-expected message, the EUR/USD pair may experience upside momentum if the Fed surprises markets—a hypothetical scenario based on current sentiment, as traders adjust their positions.
Technically, the EURUSD failed to break the initial resistance of November 2024 around the 1.09372 price level as traders weigh their prediction of the Fed rate cuts ahead of the meeting on Wednesday. After an impressive move to the upside that saw the pair gain close to 500pips, the price has now eased all gains made this as it challenges the minor support level around the price of 1.08345 price level which will play a very crucial role in the next move for the EURUSD.
Currently, traders estimate a 70% probability of at least one Fed rate cut by June. However, if the Fed provides little indication of an imminent reduction, EUR/USD could see a stronger reversal from the 1.09372 resistance level, potentially driving the pair back toward the 1.07750 support level.
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