Top three markets to watch this week: AUD/USD, Gold and Bitcoin

Global markets are charging into June with a fresh dose of optimism—and for good reason.

A strong U.S. jobs report has meaningfully eased recession fears and reinforced confidence in the economy’s momentum. While it reduces the likelihood of aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts, it underscores a more resilient growth outlook. Simultaneously, renewed progress in U.S.–China trade negotiations has helped restore market confidence, fueling a broad rebound in risk appetite.

Against this improving backdrop, three key markets stand out for close monitoring this week.

AUD/USD – Riding a tightrope between domestic softness and US signals

AUD/USD is in focus this week as markets balance Australia’s weakening macro outlook against potential shifts in U.S. monetary policy. The latest Q1 GDP print undershot expectations at just 0.2% quarterly growth—down sharply from the prior quarter—intensifying speculation around RBA rate cuts later in 2025. Attention now turns to the FOMC meeting, where the Fed is expected to hold rates steady. However, any dovish tilt in the updated dot plot could limit further upside for the Aussie dollar.

Technically, based on the daily chart as below, AUD/USD is grinding higher within a defined ascending channel, with price respecting both its trendline support and the cluster of resistance around 0.6575. Near-term support is layered between 0.6464(20-day-SMA) and 0.6396(previous peak), while a breakout above 0.6575 could open the path toward 0.6680(Nov 2024 peak). Momentum also favors the bulls—KDJ is flashing an overbought signal, but the bullish crossover still holds. The 50-day and 100-day SMAs have turned constructive, underpinning the near-term trend.

Overall, while fundamentals suggest upside could be capped by Fed-driven USD strength in the near term, while the technical structure remains bullish for the mid-term. If risk sentiment holds and the Fed surprises dovish, AUD/USD may extend its march higher—but a miss on either front could bring the pair back toward mid-channel.

Gold -testing Support Ahead of Fed Catalyst

Gold remains tightly coiled just below record highs, with the recent strong U.S. jobs report boosting the dollar and applying renewed pressure on the precious metal. Still, haven demand stays resilient amid geopolitical risk and sticky stagflation chatter.

Technically, gold is consolidating in a range just above the $3,300 mark, anchored by its short-term uptrend. The ascending trendline from February remains intact, with near-term support seen at $3,269 and stronger footing near $3,172. On the upside, resistance looms around $3,383 and the all-time high at $3,435. KDJ indicators have softened, with the %K dipping under %D, suggesting short-term consolidation before the next impulse.

If the Fed strikes a hawkish tone in next week’s FOMC meeting, gold may retreat toward trendline support. But any dovish signals or signs of economic weakness could propel the metal to new highs.

Bitcoin: retesting new highs with momentum on its side

Bitcoin is back in the spotlight after reclaiming the $110,000 handle, riding a wave of risk-on sentiment since April. Technically, BTC/USD has clearly resumed its uptrend(as demonstrated by the ascending trendline connected from April-low), bouncing off a key ascending support line and now testing resistance at $110,837. A clean break could expose the $115,000 zone, while downside support sits at $108,568 (20-day SMA) and $106,900. KDJ is deep in overbought territory, but the upward cross confirms bullish momentum. MACD also shows a strong bullish divergence, hinting at sustained buying pressure.

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